The final game of the NFL season before the Super Bowl will be at the home of the defending champions in Kansas City (what better place to end it). Earlier in the day we have the NFC championship which has the Green Bay Packers hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what should be a good game, but this matchup right here in the AFC has all the makings of a potential classic. The big news entering this game is the health of Patrick Mahomes after he suffered a concussion last week, but the bigger story will be will this matchup translate into an offensive showing or will the defenses prevail?
These are two of the most prolific offenses in the league, but that was exactly what we saw last week as the Ravens took on the Bills and that was a defensive game the whole way. This one could very well be the same, but all we want to see as fans is an offensive shootout between two MVP candidates in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
These teams met earlier in the season in Buffalo and it did not work out well for the home team in that meeting as the Chiefs took the game 26-17. That game was early in the season though as that was a week six matchup, since that game these teams have looked much different, with the Chiefs winning seven one-score games and the Bills winning their past eight games while looking like the hottest team in the NFL.
This matchup features two of the game’s prominent young stars at quarterback, with Patrick Mahomes in for the Chiefs and Josh Allen in for the Bills. The biggest concern entering this game comes with the former in that he left last week’s game due to a concussion and though he has passed the concussion protocols to be eligible to play this week, how healthy will he actually be? If fully healthy, then this should be a great game and a perfect final game before the Super Bowl where either team could come out with a victory.
Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 24 at 6:40 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Spread: Chiefs -3
Embed from Getty ImagesBuffalo Bills
If not for a miracle Hail Mary at the end of regulation against the Arizona Cardinals, then the Bills would be on a ten-game regular season ending win streak to go along with two games in the playoffs for a total of 12 games. However, that did happen and even though they lost they still enter this game as one of the hottest teams remaining and though this team is known for offense, they put on a defensive clinic last week against Baltimore.
Buffalo had only held one team all season to single digits in points, but that is exactly what they did against Baltimore, allowing only three points to one of the more dynamic offenses in the league. They may not have had the best offensive game, but they did score one offensive touchdown which made it a seven-point game and then they iced the game as they forced an interception on the goal line which led to a 100+ yard pick-six. The game was not indicative of the final score which made it look as though it were not close, in fact the game was extremely close, and two plays were the determining factor in the end, against the Chiefs it may be a similar outcome although the score should be a little higher.
Both quarterbacks were playing in the same atmosphere (obviously) and that meant that neither Jackson nor Allen had great games through the air due to the weather. Allen was missing throws that he had been making this season and, in the end, he was held to 206 passing yards on 62% while Jackson was held to 162 passing yards on 58%. Neither QB had a great game, due to conditions and the opposing defenses, but in the end Allen did more than Jackson and was able to capture the victory. While Allen did throw for a TD, it would be silly to say that Allen is the reason the Bills won. Their defense played exquisite and did exactly what they needed to do to move on.
This game the conditions will not be as they were in Buffalo, while it may still not be great weather it should not be to the point where the QBs are having trouble moving the ball. This is a good and bad thing for Buffalo. On one hand this is a team that usually wins due to their offense, but on the other hand so are the Chiefs and though their defense proved they can play great, the conditions will make this tougher.
If they can get the best of both worlds, with their offense playing to their usual level as well as their defense playing like they did last week then it could be tough for them to lose. In order to do this on the offensive end they need to get their run game going early. This does not mean it needs to rack up a ton of yards, but against Baltimore they ran the Ball about three times (designed) before the fourth quarter. They need to be more balanced against a defense that is not great against the run. Then on the defensive end the key is to do what they did last week, get to the quarterback. Buffalo blitzed Baltimore a good amount and they were able to get in the backfield, but the more impressive part is that they were able to get in the backfield with their designated four-man rush. Getting there with only four rushers allows the rest of their defense to cover and against the weapons the Chiefs have this will need to be done.
The Chiefs have such a dangerous offense that with a healthy Mahomes they can score at will, but if he is not 100% the offense will not be as good. Don’t take that chance though, assume he will be at 100% and get your four-man rush to him. This offensive line is better though so getting there may not be as easy, and if that is the case then the defensive backs need to play great coverage otherwise it could be a long day.
If Buffalo plays a mixture of last week and the regular season than losing seems tough, but they will also need to play a pretty flawless game to get past Mahomes. Mahomes was the young stud that made it to the Super Bowl last year by leading a top offense, now Allen is looking to do the same and he can do it by showing his arm and mobility off.
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City had a very frightening moment in the later stages of the game against the Browns. Their future of the franchise Patrick Mahomes went down and was seemingly knocked unconscious, while trying to get back up he was all wobbly and woozy which led him to be taken to the locker room. All fans were hoping for the best, but Chiefs fans were holding their breaths that it wasn’t anything serious. After a little bit we got the news that he suffered a concussion and would be out for the remainder of the game. How are we going to fare against the Bills next round? Well, first they had to finish off the Browns with Chad Henne and in the end, it did finish off that way with a fourth down throw for a first down with less than two minutes remaining.
They were able to advance and the concern transferred to this week and whether or not Mahomes would be ready to go. That was a concern, but it has finally come out that he did pass concussion protocol and will officially be starting the AFC Championship game. This should lighten the moods of some of their fans, but how healthy is he? Even a 70% Mahomes is better for the Chiefs than Henne would be but going against this offensive team they will need their defense in a large way if they want to advance to back-to-back Super Bowls.
The offense was playing very well when Mahomes was in the game, he was 21-30 through the air with 255 yards and one touchdown and though the run game wasn’t doing much, if it’s working for you don’t change it. Kansas City had 19 points before Mahomes exited the game and only ended up getting three without him, if it were not for the defense holding strong near the end of the game than they may not be in this situation.
The offense will need to be much better overall this week, especially since the Bills showed what they can do on the defensive side. They key for the Chiefs offense will be on their offensive line. Force the Bills to blitz you in order to win, if they can get their simple line rush to the backfield it could hurt an explosive offense from the Chiefs, but if the line can keep them away from the backfield it should allow a perfect QB-WR combo all game long.
Then we look at the last time these teams met, and the Chiefs ran for a season high 245 yards, especially with a not fully healthy QB we could see a larger portion of their offense coming through the run game. They will have to be cautious of that this game but is it worth it to stop the run but allow big plays. Buffalo has to choose the best strategy for them on the defensive side, it will be tough to stop their entire offense, but it will not surprise me if we see a similar game plan of defending the big play first then run second. If that does slow down the Chiefs offense, they will need their defense to step up like the first time they met.
The Chiefs held the Bills to 17 points and only 206 yards when they met the first time and if they do that again there should be almost no way they lose. Buffalo showed it has weaknesses last week against Baltimore and the Chiefs exposed some early in the season, but this is a different team than last time they met. Focus on defending the run up the middle, the Bills did not rush much last week but expect them to this time because the Chiefs have a good pass defense, but less than stellar run defense. While the Bills will run more it will still be a heavy dose of the pass and the Chiefs will need to slow down Diggs and Beasley as best as they can. Either force Allen to stay in the pocket with pressure or roll out to his left, don’t allow him to roll out to his throwing side because he is a huge threat from there.
Also, keep the outside covered, if they are going to pass make it over the middle deep. Allen loves going deep on the outside, force them to throw where Mathieu will be and see if he can make a big play or two for your defense. This game could come down to turnovers at the end and getting a key interception from the star of the secondary will be exactly what you need. If Allen has the outside, he will use it to beat you, but you also have to be careful about his legs. Allen has many weapons to defeat you, but the Ravens showed they can be stopped. Use what you learned from the film to slow down the pass and let your defense to show up.
Prediction: The game last week between Buffalo and Baltimore was supposed to be one of the games of the postseason and though it was a good game, it was not what it was cracked up to be (an offensive battle). This game should be just that, but there is a good chance we do not see that with everything that has happened over the recent weeks. For both of these teams the play of their quarterbacks are what we are going to be looking at and for different reasons. For Buffalo it is because they need Allen to keep the offense going plus, they are looking for him to see if he can hit those deep shots, he was missing last week. For the Chiefs it will be to see if Mahomes is healthy enough to lead this offense or if the run game will do a majority of the work.
The key to this game for me comes in Buffalo’s defense vs Kansas City’s offense. The game plan last time of limiting big plays did not work as the Chiefs ran all over them, if the same thing happens it will be tough to win. However, if you gamble and defend the run and force the big plays to beat you it could also come back to bite you. The Bills defense has to find a mixture of both in order to compete in this game and if they can limit the offense and force one or two key turnovers they will make their first Super Bowl since the 1993 season and after the outing they showed last week I think they can get it done in a close scoring game, possibly with Tyler Bass hitting a game winning field goal.
Score: Bills 29, Chiefs 27