We don’t have a Thursday night game this week, but we do have a slew of games not on Sunday and that all starts with a special Christmas game at 4:30 with the Minnesota Vikings heading down to New Orleans to play the Saints. Technically both of these teams are in the playoff race, the Saints have already clinched, but they are on opposite ends of the spectrum. New Orleans is pushing for that one seed and after their loss last week they are now a game out and the Vikings are currently in the nine seed and need every win they can get.
Minnesota played a divisional game last week against Chicago and ended up losing 33-27, that loss pushed them to 6-8 and even further down to totem pole. This is not a huge surprise after the way they started the season going 1-5, but what is still surprising is that they have a chance to make the playoffs. It will not be easy as they need to win both games as well as get a ton of help, but it is still possible.
Then we have New Orleans who locked up a playoff position when Drew Brees was out and though they were the one seed at the time, the important thing is that they have a spot. Two weeks ago, New Orleans lost to rookie Jalen Hurts and the Eagles and that meant getting the one seed was not as likely as it once was. Due to this they decided to have Drew Brees start last Sunday against Kansas City and though they kept it a close game, in the end it was not enough, and they lost. For the most part Brees looks healthy enough, but there were definitely signs that he was not 100%. Now Brees has once again had a “full” week of practice, so he should be back in the swing of things only two weeks out of the postseason.
These teams are familiar with one another even though they are not divisional opponents, they have played each other four times since the 2017 season—two regular season and two postseasons—and Minnesota has the advantage with a 3-1 record. Two of these wins came in the postseason including the 2019 postseason, so New Orleans will be fighting even harder to knock Minnesota out of the playoff race.
Christmas Football (Friday): Minnesota at New Orleans
Kickoff: Friday, Dec. 25 at 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Spread: Saints -7
How the Vikings will win
Minnesota’s offense for the most part this season has been good, it may not be as explosive as it probably should be, but it has been good enough to average 25.7 points per game. That is good enough to rank 14th in the league which isn’t terrible, but their defense has been what has been losing them their games. On the defensive side this season the Vikings have allowed less than 26 points only five times this season, so going based off their average points per game offensively they should only have five wins, instead of six. Even though that is not how averages work this has held mostly true this season as all five times they have held opponents to under 26 points they have won. That seems to be the magic number for Minnesota this season, so if they can hold the Saints to under 26 points in theory they should win.
Just because that’s what should happen does not mean it will, nor should it. Minnesota’s offense will have their toughest test yet since week two in the season where they only managed 11 points against Indianapolis. Technically they did play a very good defense two weeks ago in Tampa, but they do not rank top 10 in points allowed like New Orleans, so it is not quite the same. But, even if we look at Tampa, they only managed to score 14 points, sure, they missed 10 points in the kicking game, but the offense was effectively shut down. Things could easily be the same this week, so it won’t be easy, but if Cousins can get the pass game going things could work out well.
New Orleans defense ranks top 10 overall as well in both the run and the pass, so getting things going will not be a walk in the park, but they have their weaknesses as demonstrated last week. Their past two games they have allowed over 175 rushing yards per game and now going against the Vikings with Dalvin Cook he could easily take advantage. No matter what happens they will need to win the game via the pass and Kirk Cousins, but if Dalvin Cook plays like Dalvin Cook then the run could eat up the Saints defense.
Then we get to the part that will lose the game for them, the defense. Their defense has actually played similar to their counterparts recently, they stop the pass but struggle defending the run. This means Alvin Kamara could have a great game, especially with Michael Thomas out, but with Brees you cannot erase the pass. While you can’t do that you have been good at stopping the pass, do not let Kamara and the run game beat you, force the pass to do it especially without their top receiver.
How the Saints will win
Coming into the season the Saints were supposed to have an excellent offense to go along with a decent defense. This defense turned out to be less than decent in their first couple of games, and then a switch flipped, and they turned into a great defense. Now, over the past two weeks they have looked decent at best, specifically in the run game. Even at the start of the season the run defense was easily the best part of the defense, but in the past two weeks they have looked like one of the worst. Philadelphia found the weaknesses and ran for 246 yards and then Kansas City kept that trend going and ran for 179. This week they have to do everything they can to stop the Vikings and Dalvin Cook. If they do then their defense gets some rest, if not their defense will be tired for the rest of the game.
The best bet defensively for the Saints is to force Cousins and the pass to defeat you. The Vikings have their weapons in the pass game, but you have a rush that can get to the QB with the best of them and the Vikings are a team that are not the best at stopping the pass rush. Force them to pass and get to the QB defensively and this game should not be close but allow them to run all over you and it could be a long day.
Then we get to the offensive side and it is similar to the Vikings offensive plan, run the ball. Usually, with the Saints we would say throw the ball, but we still don’t know the true health of Brees and they will be without their top receiver in Michael Thomas. Being without Thomas will be a huge blow to the team, but it’s not like it is something they are now dealing with. They have already played games without him this season, so they should know how to work around it, but who knows. Brees should be more accurate than he was last week, and he could hit his running backs and tight ends for a bulk of his yards. Minnesota struggles in both the run and the pass when it comes to defense, but over the past weeks they have been much better defending the pass.
This means that the run game could take advantage and they should attempt to do that. While that is what they should do, this offense is still going to get their passes in and if they go with a truly balanced offensive attack by mixing things up then they should have all the advantages over Minnesota.
Final Analysis
Both of these teams need this victory for different reasons, but at the end of the day this game is going to come down to which defense can get stops. At an early glance that gives an advantage to New Orleans, but their defense has struggled over the past two weeks so who knows. On paper both of these offenses could and should be great, so it could be a very high scoring game, so whatever defense gets one or two key stops or turnovers should win this game. Minnesota has had the upper hand over New Orleans recently, but this season they are not as good and being in a do or die situation they could make some poor decisions. With all of that, the Saints should win this game and avenge their recent losses to Minnesota.
Score: Saints 28, Vikings 20