The Ballot for the 2021 BBWAA Hall of Fame class was officially announced on Monday and in an early glance we can say that there are no sure-fire hall of famers. This list is comprised of 25 former players, 14 of which are holdovers making a repeat appearance and 11 newcomers. In order to be considered a holdover you would have had to already be on the ballot and receive at least five percent of the vote and less than 75 percent of the vote (otherwise you would have been elected).
The only conditions for players who are not on their first ballot is that they only have 10 years to be on the ballot before they either get elected or get off the ballot (down from the 15 years it was until July 26, 2014). Even though some players on the current ballot were on the ballot before the rule change (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, and Sammy Sosa) they were not grandfathered in and therefore have only two more years on the ballot.
This year’s induction could provide something that we have not seen since before the rule change was implemented. 2013 was the most recent year that no player was inducted first ballot and the most recent year that no player was inducted at all. This year is most likely going to provide us with one of these things, no first ballot, but it could potentially provide us with both of these. The top vote-getter from 2020 who is still currently on the ballot is Curt Schilling who mustered up 70 percent of the votes, this is now Schilling’s ninth ballot so time is running low if he is going to get voted in.
Then we have the newcomers and it is very weak set compared to previous classes. Since 2014 we have seen a first ballot get inducted every year, let’s look at who they were: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas (2014), Randy Johnson, Pedro Martínez, John Smoltz (2015), Ken Griffey Jr. (2016), Iván Rodríguez (2017), Chipper Jones, Jim Thome (2018), Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay (2019), and Derek Jeter (2020). This year’s newcomers include names such as Torii Hunter, Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle, and Aramis Ramírez, not necessarily names that stack up with the previous first ballots.
While we may not see any first ballots, the biggest question on people’s minds are whether or not this will finally be the year we see the names of Bonds and Clemens make the hall? We have a long time before the vote takes place so this will be a basic analysis with basic question, if you want an in depth look at each player then stay ready throughout the new year because we will dig deep on every candidate, but without further ado here are the biggest things you need to know about the 2021 MLB Hall of Fame ballot.
1. Newcomers have slim chance of staying on ballot
One of the biggest issues in recent years with the hall of fame is that some people have claimed it is starting to become a “hall of very good”, this was mainly due to Harold Baines getting inducted by the Today’s game committee in 2019. Baines was always a good player, but the hall of fame was a stretch and it caused a big stir when he got inducted, there are certainly other players as well, but this is the most recent example. This is currently where many, if not all, the first ballot members sit on this year’s ballot.
As stated earlier, the biggest names out of all the newcomers include: Torii Hunter, Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle, and Aramis Ramírez. Outside of them we also have Shane Victorino, Dan Haren, Barry Zito, A.J. Burnett, Nick Swisher, LaTroy Hawkins, and Michael Cuddyer. Out of these 11 players there are guys who had long productive careers, but does this mean they belong in the hall of fame, no it does not.
The Hall of Fame should be tough to get into, it should be reserved for the best of the best and not given out like a participation award for very good players who played a long time. In an early prediction there will be no newcomers who are inducted into the Hall this year (Bold!), but there may not be any who even make it past the five percent threshold in order to stay on the ballot in future years. If there are any players who make it to another ballot, I would be shocked, but if there are it will not be many, and they will barely pass the threshold. Even if some players do make it through year one, it is hard to imagine any of them ever getting voted in.
2. Will Schilling finally be inducted?
Since his first year on the ballot it seems as though Schilling has been unfairly scrutinized, now why is this, his politics. Schilling is very outspoken on his beliefs and it rubs people in the wrong way, I am not here to discuss his politics, but this should have no bearing on whether or not he was a hall of fame player. Schilling’s case is different than others on this list like Bonds, Clemens, Sosa and some others because he is not being voted in due to his possible PED use, it is strictly an attitude on and off the field issue. Outside of his politics, Schilling was never Mr. popular in the clubhouse or off the field, this again should not have a bearing on his HOF case, but it does. While it should not be and should be for on field accomplishments, the Hall of Fame is also a popularity contest, if you were a likeable player who put together a good resume then you are likely to get in, likewise if you were not a media darling even with deserved stats it will be tougher to make it.
While this is a perceived issue with Schilling, when you look at his stats this may not be the exact reason. Strictly looking at the numbers Schilling makes a good case with his 3,000+ strikeouts but taking a closer look he may have been a compiler more than anything. He was never the best pitcher in the league and voters have treated him as such. However, in recent years Schilling’s chances have been getting better and better to make the Hall, let’s look at his percentages since he has been on the list.
2013: 38.8%
2014: 29.2%
2015: 39.2%
2016: 52.3%
2017: 45.0%
2018: 51.2%
2019: 60.9%
2020: 70.0%
Over the last four years, Schilling has gone up 25%, the past three of which were about 19%. If this trend continues then there is a good shot that this is the year, we finally see Schilling enter the Hall, but if we don’t see that then he will only have one more opportunity on the ballot before he is off.
3. Has the Coors Field myth been destroyed?
Larry Walker was finally inducted into the Hall last year on his 10th and final ballot appearance, his induction made him the first player to play at least half of his career in Colorado to make the hall of fame since their franchise started in 1993. Todd Helton has a chance to make that two players since their inaugural season in 1993. The biggest issue with Helton is that he not only played over half of his career in Colorado, but he played his entire career there. Voters have often thought that offensive numbers were inflated to the Coors effect and that may be the case, but Helton provides a good case either way to be in the Hall. Helton still has plenty of time to be inducted if he does not get in this year, but the bigger question isn’t whether he will make it this year, it is what kind of increase will he have?
2019 was Helton’s first year on the ballot and he received 16.5 percent of the vote, last year he increased his percentage to 29.2 percent. It still seems like a while away if it will ever happen, but if he can get an increase like last season then he is on a good pace to one day be inducted.
4. Who will have the largest increase in votes?
We already discussed Helton who went up about 13 percent last year on his second ballot, but we did not mention any other player who could see some big increases and make their way one step closer to the hall. These players include Omar Vizquel who has gone up a total of 15.6 percent in his three years on the ballot, Scott Rolen who has gone up a total of 25.1 percent in his three years, and Billy Wagner who has gone up 21.5 percent in his five years on the ballot. These players have all seen consistent increases which could lead them to eventually making the Hall, but maybe the most intriguing player this year will be Bobby Abreu who only received 5.5 percent on his first ballot, barely enough to even remain on the ballot. Abreu was always an offensive threat and that could seriously help his case in a year with a less crowded ballot. There are not too many, if any, “sure things” on the ballot so we could see a good amount of people get large increases due to that. It will be interesting to see which player will have the largest increase in votes this year.
5. Where do Bonds and Clemens stand?
The most intriguing players on this list and the most intriguing since they have been eligible are Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Bonds and Clemens entered the ballot the same year that Schilling did and though at one point it looked like they had a better shot than Schilling, that is no more. Bonds and Clemens certainly have the statistics and accolades to be inducted, but one glaring issue is keeping them out of the Hall, potential steroid use. Due to this they are still on the ballot, which is kind of amazing, but time is running out and with how their percentages have gone it may mean these two never make it. Let’s look at their percentages since they have been on the ballot.
2013: Bonds 36.2%; Clemens 37.6%
2014: Bonds 34.7%; Clemens 35.4%
2015: Bonds 36.8%; Clemens 37.5%
2016: Bonds 44.3%; Clemens 45.2%
2017: Bonds 53.8%; Clemens 54.1%
2018: Bonds 56.4%; Clemens 57.3%
2019: Bonds 59.1%; Clemens 59.5%
2020: Bonds 60.7%; Clemens 61.0%
Other than their first two years on the ballot, they have been gaining traction and at one point they were gaining enough traction where they could have realistically made it, but in recent years they are not getting enough votes to one day be voted in. I will not make my case for these two in this, but if they want any chance to make it then they need more than a one or two percent increase. These two only have two more years left on the ballot, so if we don’t see at least a nine percent increase this year then we may not ever see them get inducted. Realistically with these two, they may gain a few votes but most voters have already made up their mind, so let’s see if they how much they will go up, if any.
With baseball now being in the postseason we don’t have much to discuss other than free agency and predictions on next season, so we will be digging deeper into this year’s ballot as the calendar moves forward.