The MLB regular season is almost over and the playoffs will be in full swing. Because the season is almost over that means that that the voting for the Hall of Fame class of 2020 is almost upon us. In 2019 we witnessed history, seeing the first player ever to get 100% of the vote to get elected —Mariano Rivera—we are still waiting to see the first position player to get 100% of the vote.
Is it possible that we see the first position player to earn 100% of the votes?
It is possible, but not likely. There would only be player who could possibly earn that distinction in the class, Rivera’s teammate Derek Jeter. Now that the 100% threshold has been broken it is possible that we see more players reach that mark, but this will not be the year that it continues.
There is a plethora of newcomers that have a chance to get elected in the upcoming class with Jeter: Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, and Cliff Lee.
Jeter seems like the only newcomer who will get elected this year, but he could be joined by returning players to the ballet.
Here we are going to break down the players chances of making the Hall of Fame and being part of the 2020 class, who need at least 75% of the vote to be inducted.
Derek Jeter
Jeter is a lock for the Hall, one of the best players and leaders to ever play the game. He was a great offensive player and a below average fielder who was part of one of the greatest dynasties in Baseball history. Between 1995 and 2000 the Yankees won four championships and Jeter was the catalyst of all of them. With 3,465 hits—good for sixth all-time— and a .310 career average with a .377 on-base-percentage, Jeter is a virtual lock for the Hall.
The only question for Jeter is what will the vote percentage look like? Jeter has the advantage of coming in the year after the first unanimous selection. This means it is possible that Jeter could become the first position player to ever reach unanimous status, but Jeter will need to get the same thought process that Rivera got from the voters—the greatest of all-time. Jeter is a lock to make the Hall, so there will be at least one player inducted in 2020.
Bobby Abreu
No other first year player will be a lock like Jeter, but Abreu has a shot. I say Abreu has a shot, but it is completely possible that Abreu gets less than 5% of the vote and will be taken off the ballet completely. Abreu has stats worthy of the Hall, 2,470 hits, 288 HR, 1,363 RBI and 400 SB with a .291 career average. Abreu has two seasons of 30-30, 30 HR and 30 SB which is impressive.
One downfall for him is he is connected to steroids. There have been players who have recently been inducted who have been connected to steroids: Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell, and Ivan Rodriguez. There is no definitive proof that any of these players used performance enhancing drugs, but there were connections that they had. This could actually be to Abreu’s benefit because he was connected, but there was never any definitive proof that he used.
Abreu is an interesting case in the upcoming election, and it looks like he will be somewhere between 5 and 20% of the vote. Don’t be shocked if Abreu falls under 5% and is taken off the ballet, we have seen many good players fail to reach that mark and Abreu may fall in that category in the upcoming vote.
Jason Giambi
Giambi is in a different boat than all the other first years members on the ballot, he is not only suspected to have used steroids, he actually admitted to using steroids and human growth hormone. This alone will most likely take Giambi off the list, failing to reach the 5% threshold to remain on the ballot.
Giambi was one of the most feared hitters of the early 2000s, finishing his career with a triple slash line of .277/.399/.516. On top of that he had 440 HR, 1,441 RBI and 1,366 walks, good for 32nd all-time. He admitted to using steroids and that was when he was one of the most feared hitters in the league.
After he supposedly stopped using steroids his numbers dropped off epically. His average never topped .300 again—his highest being .271, the lowest since his rookie year where he hit .256. Giambi also only reached 100 RBIs twice after he stopped. His eye was still incredible, having an OBP over .400 three times while not having a high average. Giambi was never good in the field, before or after his steroid use.
The only argument for Giambi making the Hall would be his offensive numbers and that he confessed to using steroids. However, it comes to think, would his prime numbers have been so high without the help of the steroids? Probably not, due to this and being a known user of the banned substances Giambi will not make the Hall on this ballot and will probably fail to reach the 5% mark.
Cliff Lee
The last of the first-year players who could make the Hall we have Cliff Lee. Cliff Lee is probably the most interesting case out of any of the first timers. Strictly going off numbers Lee is not a hall of famer, but we can’t strictly go off numbers for Lee. However, if we are going off numbers than we could say yes, because they are eerily similar to teammate Roy Halladay.
Lee played 13 seasons which could be a downfall because he didn’t have a chance to compile numbers that he may need to make the Hall. In 13 seasons Lee had 143 wins and 91 losses while posting a 3.52 ERA. His ERA is only 14 points higher than that of Halladay’s. Lee was never a strikeout machine, but he was accurate and didn’t walk many people, finishing with a 3.93K/BB ratio—ranking 15th all time—, higher that Halladay’s which was 3.58K/BB.
In Lee’s prime he was one of the best pitchers in the league. Winning the Cy Young award in 2008, his last full season in Cleveland, Lee had a 22-3 record with a 2.54 ERA. Between 2008 and 2013 Lee posted one of the best ERAs over the time, 2.895, with his highest being 3.22 in 2009.
Lee’s shortened playing time and career numbers will be the only reason you could say he will not make the Hall. Due to this you would have to look at Lee’s 13 seasons compared to other hall of famers 13 seasons. Voters will hopefully take this into account when looking at Lee’s case, but this could hurt him in the long run. In my opinion Lee should make the hall of fame, not this season, but he should eventually get there. The voters may look at this differently, but he should not be off the ballot after this year, he will finish around 25-40% of the vote.
Curt Schilling
Schilling is the player who has been on the ballot in the past who has the highest percentage from last year’s votes, 60.9%. Schilling will be entering his eighth year on the ballot, meaning if he does not make it this year, he only has two more opportunities to make it through voting. Schilling is an interesting case, he probably should be in the Hall, but due to his beliefs and politics he has yet to get voted in.
No matter what you think of the person off the field, on the field Schilling was a hall of famer. Schilling’s regular season stats in 20 years don’t look too impressive at first glance, but when you add in his postseason stats it is hard to make a case that he doesn’t deserve to get in. Schilling has 216 wins and 146 losses with a career 3.46 ERA. These don’t seem that impressive, but he is a member of the 3,000-strikeout club with 3,116 and ranks sixth all-time in K/BB ratio with a 4.38K/BB.
Schilling has had his ups and downs on the ballot, but in the past couple years he keeps getting closer. If there is any reason for Schilling to be in the Hall it would be his postseason numbers. In 5 postseason runs Schilling was 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and the co-MVP in the 2001 World Series along with Randy Johnson. Schilling is one of the best postseason pitchers of all-time and has three World Series rings to his name.
Schilling for the past couple years has been getting closer and closer, this will be another one of those years, if he can get around 70% of the vote this year then he will eventually make it in his last two opportunities. This will not be the year he makes the Hall, but I think he will finish around 68-70% of the vote which will make it more likely for his to make it in either 2021 or 2022.
Roger Clemens
By statistics alone Clemens should be in the Hall, that is no doubt, but because of his link to steroids he has not gotten in. Clemens is a seven-time Cy Young award winner, the most all-time, and has great statistics over his 24 seasons: 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 4,672 K, and a 2.96 K/BB ratio.
Clemens was one of the greatest pitchers the game has ever seen, but it may have been with a little help from banned substances. Clemens never actually got charged with using performance-enhancing drugs, but he was charged with six counts of perjury because of lying to a house committee in 2008 and making false statements and obstructing a congressional investigation into the use of banned substances.
The evidence stated that sometime between 1998 and 2001, Clemens started to use the drugs to help prolong his career. Clemens easily could have been a hall of famer if he never decided to use these, intentional or unintentional, but because he used them, he has not gotten there. Clemens has been getting increased numbers every single year, with last year’s voting falling at 59.5%.
His largest increase came between 2016 and 2017 where he jumped from 45.2% to 54.1%. In the past two years he has only increased by 5%. If Clemens does not get inducted this year, he will only have two years left on the ballot to make it, similar to Schilling. Clemens seems to have reached around the highest number of votes that he will ever receive, therefore not making the Hall. Clemons will not make the Hall this season and will sit around 60% of the votes for the rest of his remaining time on the ballot thanks to the links to performance-enhancing drugs.
Barry Bonds
Bonds is in a similar situation as Clemens, because of the link to performance-enhancing drugs it seems like he will never be inducted into the Hall. Just like Clemens though, Bonds most likely would have been a hall of famer if he never touched a banned substance.
Bonds was unlike any other player to have played the game, other than Willie Mays, he was the definition of a 5-tool players. Bonds’ career statistics are off the charts, a career triple slash line of .298/.444/.607. He is the career leader in Home Runs (762), Walks (2,558), Intentional Walks (688), and sixth all-time in RBIs (1,996). Bonds had 2,935 hits and added 514 stolen bases on his career line. Bonds is one of four players who are part of the 40-40 club, 40 HR and 40 SB. Oh, and he was a seven-time MVP. Bonds is also the only player part of the 400-400 club and 500-500 club.
Bonds was never a fan of the media, dismissing them as much as he possibly could, this is one reason why Bonds is not getting votes. However, the more viable reason is because of his link to banned substances. A federal indictment in 2007 said there were anabolic steroids found in Bonds’ system in November 2000. It just so happens that this was a year after his game completely changed, he focused mainly on hitting and not running, which was always a part of his game, never amassing 20 SB in his career again.
Bonds, just like Clemens, has been gaining traction in the voting over the past couple years finishing last year with a 59.1% of the votes. This is due to the more newcomers voting and less of the old-timers voting. More newcomers are likely to vote for Bonds because he was one of the best to ever do it, even before the allegations. But, even with the current trend Bonds will never reach the Hall because of the link to performance-enhancing drugs. Bonds, like Clemens, will sit around 60-65% for the rest of his three years on the ballot and he will not get in this upcoming season.
Larry Walker
Walker is a conundrum compared to the rest of the players on the ballot, he will be the only player entering his final year on the ballot. We saw last season two players enter their final year on the ballot in Fred McGriff and Edgar Martinez, out of them only one player made it, Edgar Martinez. This could favor well for Walker considering he has made huge leaps in the past couple years. In 2017 Walker only got 21.9% of the vote, the next year he jumped to 34.1%, this past year he made the biggest leap, going to 54.6%.
Entering his final year could be favorable to Walker, after jumping 20.5% last year, if he could jump another 20.5%, he will be in considering he only needs a jump of 20.4%. His statistics say that he should be in the Hall, but the Coors Field curse comes into play. Since he played in Colorado his offensive number seem to be inflated. Walker always had good offensive numbers, but when he went to Colorado the numbers seemed to inflate.
Finishing with a career triple slash of .313/.400/.565 Walker has the numbers, with 383 HR, 1,311 RBI, and 230 SB. His only downfall for offensive numbers would be total hits, where he only has 2,160. Walker was also a good defensive right fielder, a metric that seems to not matter as much to voters as offense.
Walker will have to have a great final surge to make the Hall and it does not seem likely. Walker will definitely get some more voters to go his way as it is a weaker ballot to vote on, but Walker will still come up short. It doesn’t seem likely that Walker will get another 20% increase and that is his only chance of getting voted in the Hall of Fame. Expect Walker to get a good increase, but not enough to get there, he will finish around 68-72%.
Todd Helton
Another player who had to suffer the consequences of the Coors Field effect on the ballot, I place Helton here not because he had a large percentage of votes, but because he didn’t. It was a travesty that Helton only received 16.5% of the votes. Helton has everything that is needed to be in the Hall, the only downfall is that he didn’t make enough all-star teams.
Helton was one of the most consistent players of his time in the MLB. In 17 seasons Helton finished with a batting average below .300 five times, finishing with a career average of .316. He had 2,519 hits, 592 2B, 369 HR, and 1,335 walks. Helton wasn’t just a little better at home, he was a lot better at home, and that’s what hurts his cause. His career batting average at home is 58 points higher than it was on the road.
His home numbers are undeniably good, but that could be his downfall. Coors Field complicates things when looking at a potential hall of famer and it hurt Helton majorly. However, Helton was also one of the best defensive first baseman ever. This should help Helton in the long run, but not anytime soon.
Helton will definitely get an increase in votes, but he will not get in this year. It is likely that Helton will not get in until the end of his run on the ballot. If anyone can overcome the Coors Field effect it will be Helton who was one of the best first baseman in his time in the MLB. Expect Helton to finish around 35% for this year’s ballot.
Other players who were on the ballot last season will increase in their percentages and have a chance to likely get in in the future, most notably Omar Vizquel. I didn’t mention Vizquel because he will increase this upcoming election, but he will still fall well short of the 75% threshold needed to make the Hall.
The Baseball hall of fame is the most exclusive hall of fame out there, they don’t need to induct someone every year, like the NFL. In fact, there have been 19 times in MLB history where no players got elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America. This year will not be one of those years, there will be one player inducted and that will be “The Captain” Derek Jeter.