While it may not seem like it with the output that both of these teams have had this season, both the Vikings and the Bears are in the middle of a playoff race right now. It should be clear that the Bears are in the running considering they are 5-4 and currently sit in the seventh and final playoff spot (even though they’re on a three-game losing streak), but it is not as clear for the Vikings considering how they started the season. Coming into the season the Vikings were expected to contend with the Packers for the division win, then they started out 1-5; now they are at 3-5 and sit two and a half games out of the final playoff position.
It is fair to say that this game is more than just a rivalry game for two division foes, this could be the game that sets the tone for the second half of the season.
While the records may show these teams going in two opposite directions, that is only somewhat true in the opposite direction. The Vikings are trending upwards with their offense and defense playing their best football of the season and the Bears are trending downwards after losing three straight and working their way out of the playoff picture.
This game is massively important for playoff aspirations for both teams, but it is also an important game for both quarterbacks. For the Vikings, Kirk Cousins has a reputation of not being able to win in primetime (especially Monday Night) as he carries a career 0-9 record on MNF—0-6 in Washington and 0-3 in Minnesota. Cousins hasn’t necessarily played bad in all of these games, but this is when he needs to dispel the myth he can’t win on Mondays. On the other side we have Nick Foles who since taking over is technically 2-4 (really 3-4) and outside of finishing off Atlanta and Tennessee he has not a good game as a starter. Right now, he is the starter indefinitely since Mitchell Trubisky is out, but if he doesn’t get some wins soon the Trubisky could come back when healthy.
This matchup not only has huge ramifications at the team level, but also at the individual level, which of these quarterbacks will do what it takes to win to not only help themselves but also help their teams playoff chances?
Monday Night Football: Vikings at Bears
Kickoff: Monday, Nov. 16 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Vikings -2.5
How the Vikings will win
Minnesota has always had the talent on the offensive end, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen , and Justin Jefferson, but the part you never really knew about was the defense. Strictly looking at yards allowed the Vikings are one of the worst defenses in the league ranking 30th, luckily, we don’t win games by yardage allowed, we win or lose based off points scored vs points allowed. However, in the manner the Vikings are not good either ranking 27th in the league. While that is not good it sounds worse than it is, over the past two games Minnesota has allowed it’s least amount of points (22 against the Packers and 20 against the Lions), if they keep up this trend with the offense than a win is almost guaranteed against a weak offense.
The Vikings defense may be playing their best ball of the season right now, but they are going against a subpar offense this game, so the key to the game still falls back on their offense. Obviously, key turnovers and short fields provided by the defense will help the offense, but the Bears have one of the better defenses in the league so if they want to win, they need to score. Chicago’s defense this season ranks seventh in points allowed, ninth in pass defense, and 14th in run defense. While no aspect of their defense is necessarily bad, they have a clear weakness and that is in the run game. For Minnesota that is perfect since their strength is their run game with Dalvin Cook.
Cook had been good through five weeks this season, always accumulating at least 50 rushing yards and sometimes attaining over 125 yards, but in the past two games Cook has been the best running back in the league amassing over 350 yards on the ground. On top of those rush yards he has also added 100+ receiving yards combined over the past two games. Cook has been the clear leader of the offense and teams know that so he will be the main focus for the Bears defense. Just because he is the main focus though does not mean that the Vikings won’t utilize him properly, but it could be less depending on their pass coverage. With so much focus on Cook, the pass game with Thielen and Jefferson should be freed up and the Vikings offense could provide the toughest matchup for the Bears defense yet.
How the Bears will win
Nick Foles had one of his best games as a member of the Bears last week against Tennessee but in the end, it was not enough. This week they go against a similar team in the Vikings who could have an explosive offense but has some weak points in their defense. The Bears though are almost the exact opposite of Vikings as a team, the defense is very good compared to the offense that is one of the worst in the league. We’ve already discussed the Bears defensive ratings, but we have not talked about their offensive rankings win which they rank 30th in points, 20th in the pass and 32nd in the run.
The defense is going to be what wins the game for them, but let’s discuss the offense first. On the offense there are two big names that Chicago could be without this game, one is certain in David Montgomery who is out with a concussion and the other, bigger player is Allen Robinson who is questionable with a knee. In a normal circumstance, not having Montgomery may not be a huge blow, but he is the only (real) running back on the roster and the only one with over 100 yards on the ground. Now, Montgomery hasn’t been doing anything special, but he provides some sort of relief from the pass and now without him they will have to rely on Foles and the passing game even more.
Allen Robinson on the other hand would be a huge blow if he is not able to play because he is their offense, he has almost a third of their receiving yards and is what makes this offense flow. Chicago still has other decent receivers in Anthony Miller, Darnell Mooney, and Jimmy Graham, but without Robinson to open things up for them they could be in for a tough game. If Robinson plays then things will be a whole lot easier, but the offense has had issues either way so Nick Foles will need to be on point like last week if they want to win.
The offense may have to put up a ton of points to win this game, but if the defense can slow down Cook and Cousins then they may not need a ton of scoring in order to win it. The numbers may not say that the Bears have an elite defense, but it would be crazy to think that they do not. Part of the reason the numbers do not look as good as they could is because the offense does not do well and that forces the defense to be on the field for longer. This is going to make any team look worse, but when you have players like Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks, and Roquan Smith it is tough to make the defense look bad. Cousins has had his issues on Monday night before and struggled early on in the season, if the Bears can force a similar performance out of Cousins they have a great shot at winning the game, if not, be prepared for a long one.
Final Analysis
This is a game where a good offense is going up against a good defense. We all know the old mantra that defense wins championships, but is the Bears defense really that good? It’s tough to say, but I would say no, they are not that good. That doesn’t mean they can’t win games though but they will need their offense to help them out. If Foles can play a similar game to last week with their defense slowing down the Vikings they can be back in the win column, but with the way these teams are trending, I’m going with the team that is clicking right now.
Score: Vikings 23, Bears 18