If the playoffs were to start today, then we would be witnessing a game between two wild card teams in the NFC in the 7-3 Buccaneers and the 6-3 Rams; safe to say that this game will have huge implications for the playoffs. Not only will this game imply a better seed for one of these teams, but it will also create chaos in either division—and we all love chaos in the NFL— as with a Rams victory they would be tied with the Seahawks for the division lead at 7-3 and a Buccaneers win would put them only a half-game behind the division leading Saints.
Both of these teams enter this game with divisional wins last week as the Rams defeated the Seahawks 23-16 and the Buccaneers defeated the Panthers 46-23. Now they face each other in the latest installment of Monday Night Football and while these two teams have fairly similar records, how they both reached their current positions has been very different.
The Los Angeles Rams went to the Super Bowl in the 2018 season and then last season they completely underwhelmed and even though they went 9-7 they ended up missing out on the playoffs. In that 2018 season they heavily relied on their historic offense to lead them to victories while their defense was average at best—even though they had Aaron Donald. This season is almost the complete opposite of that season. The offense has been average at best when it comes to putting the ball in the endzone, but the defense has stepped up and has become one of the best all-around defenses in both the pass and the run game.
Then we move to the Buccaneers and while they may not have the top ranked offense like the 2018 Rams or the top ranked defense like the 2020 Rams, they have a mix of both a great offense and defense. Adding Tom Brady at quarterback was no doubt going to make this offense even better than it was last season with Jameis Winston, that is normally what happens when you add the greatest QB of all time, but the defense has been a pleasant surprise. Tampa has not had a top 10 scoring defense since the 2010 season in which they went 10-6, that season they just missed the playoffs, this season barring any monumental implosions they will easily make the postseason. This is a huge step forward from where they were last season where they had the 29th ranked defense and if they can keep this momentum, they can make a deep run into the postseason.
Last time we saw these two teams play each other (last season) we saw an absolute classic in LA where the Winston led Buccaneers took the victory 55-40 in a game that saw 95 total points scored and 982 total yards. Seeing a high scoring game could be great, but both of these defenses rank top 10, so which offense will prevail in a battle against two of the best defenses?
Monday Night Football: Rams at Buccaneers
Kickoff: Monday, Nov. 23 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Buccaneers -4
How the Rams will win
The Rams are thought to be an offensive team with a great defense as opposed to a defensive team with a great offense, but the latter is closer to where they currently stand. That is a fairly accurate description of the team, but the biggest issue with the Rams offense is that they have an issue putting the ball in the endzone. If we look strictly at yards then the Rams rank fifth in the league, 11th in the pass, and seventh in the run, but then we look at scoring and they are in the middle of the pack at 17th. The pass is the biggest issue in this facet, only connecting for 13 total touchdowns on the season in nine games. It’s great that they can march down the field with the best of teams, but if that only translated to field goals, or even nothing then that will not win games against the better offenses in the league.
The pass game should be doing much better when it comes to scoring, especially with the complement of the run game that ranks seventh in the league in yards and second in rushing touchdowns. This is the game that Jared Goff needs to step up and march his team down the field on a consistent basis. When the Rams get into the red zone, they rank middle of the pack at putting the ball in the end zone at a 62.86% clip and Goff has an 8-1 TD to INT ratio inside the red zone. However, the biggest Goff has inside the 20-yard line is completing passes. Currently Goff has a 59.46 completion percentage inside the 20 and inside the 10 it falls to 41.67% which is one of the worst in the league. Luckily, they have their run game which has been very good, to keep them afloat, but if the pass becomes consistent within the 20 then this offense becomes that much better (especially against a defense that allows the 16th most passing touchdowns).
Then we have the defense led by Aaron Donald. Is there any interior lineman who can challenge Donald as the best in the league? He is a great run stopper, and a menace in the pass game already racking up nine sacks on the season. However, Donald is not the only reason this defense is great, they rank second in points allowed, second in the pass, and fifth in the run. This week they play a team with a ton of weapons on the outside, if they can get to Brady like they did to Wilson last week (six sacks) then the pass of the Bucs could have some issues, however, if the Brady has time to get rid of the ball then the Bucs offense could roll like they did last week.
How the Buccaneers will win
The Buccaneers have a very good offense and a very good defense and that was proven last week when they got 544 total offensive yards while only allowing 187 yards. While that is great it also brings up one of the biggest issues with the Bucs, their defense being good has usually been what sets up the offense, when they don’t do well than the offense will not do too well. In all of their losses this season the Buccaneers defense has had only one or less forced turnover while the offense has had at least one turnover (seven in three games).
That means, in order to be in this game from the get-go then the defense needs to start off strong. The best part about this game for their defense is that they match strengths with the Rams offense. The Rams are one of the best rushing teams in the league and the Bucs have the second-best run defense in the league. They have a ferocious run defense to go along with a good pass defense that ranks ninth in the league and force turnovers with the best of them, forcing 12 interceptions on the season, good for second in the league. If the defense can do what they have been doing all season, setting up short fields for the offense then this could be a blowout.
Even if there are some issues on the defensive side though, the Buccaneers have enough weapons on the offensive side to make up for it. Other than a few games, the Buccaneers offense has played great regardless of the defense, it obviously helps getting short fields, but they have proven they can do it. Brady has some of the best weapons he has ever had in his career and for the most part they have helped lead this offense, but it is the mishaps that is more concerning. The first couple of weeks were forgivable, considering a new team with no preseason, but in the six weeks they have had under 250 passing yards three times. Going against one of the best defenses in the league, they could run into the same exact issue, so if they want to win this game then the defense will need to force turnovers to give the offense good field position in order to get a head start.
Final Analysis
We have an all-around team in the Buccaneers going up against a great defense with a potentially dangerous offense in the Rams, so what will we see, an offensive shootout or a defensive battle. With all the weapons on the offensive side, it would not be surprising to see an offensive shootout, but with the defenses both of these teams present then we are more likely to see a defensive battle. We are also getting a rematch of quarterbacks in the 2018 Super Bowl, so will Goff get revenge? We have had a number of great games this week already and there is no better way to end it then with a classic of a game, that is exactly what I think will happen in favor of the home team.
Score: Buccaneers 24, Rams 23