Entering this season, the Patriots and the Jets were teams who were projected to be going on two different paths, while that is somewhat still true, it is nowhere near where we thought they’d be. Obviously, the biggest news throughout the whole offseason was that after 20 seasons in New England, Tom Brady would be a free agent for the first time in his career.
Well, after that happened the question then became, could the Patriots still make the playoffs without Brady?
Things were looking good at first with two victories in their first three games and even in the loss it was a barnburner with one of the best teams in the league. Since then Cam Newton found himself on the COVID-19/Reserve list and though he is now back the Patriots are in the midst of a four-game losing streak. This is the game they are looking to break that streak as they face the winless Jets.
The Jets have had a rough season so far and that may be sugar coating it. There is really nothing good to say when discussing the play of the Jets this season, they were projected to be bad, but this is an entire new level of bad. In fact, things are so bad that in only one of their eight games have they been within one score at the end of the game and that was in an 18-10 loss to the Bills.
The “Tank for Trevor” chants have never been louder and they could place themselves one step closer this week as Sam Darnold will not start the game dealing with a shoulder injury. This means that Joe Flacco will be making his second stint of starts this season. In his first two starts on the year Flacco is 0-2 with 381 yards with one touchdown and one interception. While the fans may want the full tank, no team ever wants to lose every game so Flacco and the team will do everything possible to get a divisional win against Belichick and the Patriots.
For the Patriots, it has already been a long season, but the playoffs are still possible, however, it all begins with a victory tonight. With seven teams making the playoffs from each conference this season, making the playoffs has never been statistically easier but it becomes increasingly difficult with each and every loss.
Cam Newton has not been playing well for the Patriots for the past couple of weeks and he has publicly stated he needs to play better; he is saying the correct things but now is when he has to let his actions speak for themselves.
The quest for a 12th consecutive AFC East crown is at jeopardy and most likely will not happen, but the road to the wild card starts tonight.
Monday Night Football: New England at New York (Jets)
Kickoff: Monday, Nov. 9 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Patriots -7.0
How the Patriots will win
New England enters this Monday night game 2-5 on the season, but in their recent history against the Jets they have been nothing short of dominant winning 17 of their past 20 regular season meetings since 2010, including eight straight victories dating back to the 2016 season. The big difference between those meetings and this meeting is the quarterback situation. Tom Brady is no longer the starter in New England, so it is now up to Cam Newton to add onto that streak.
When Cam Newton signed over the offseason it seemed like a potentially brilliant move and it actually started off like that, since he landed himself on the COVID-19 list it has looked anything but brilliant. So far this season the Patriots rank 29th in scoring offense, 30th in the passing game and fourth in the rushing game. The offense has been off since that week four loss to the Chiefs where they only scored 10 points. Since that game they have only scored 20+ points in one game, something they did in each of their first three games. There are some positives to look at in their most recent game even though it was a loss; their offense looked better against an average defense, but the run game looked great.
The Patriots offensive game plan has looked completely different this season than it has in previous seasons, in seasons pass it was about the pass, now it’s about the run. In all but two games this season have the Patriots accumulated 100+ yards on the ground with four games having 180+ rush yards, this week they go against a defense that ranks 14th in the run but one that has allowed 100+ yards in all but two games. In this aspect they match strengths, but something will have to give this game. The Patriots have relied on the run game all season long and that should not change, but the pass is where they could separate themselves even further.
The pass is not the strong spot of the Pats offense, they have only surpassed 200 yards once this season, but the Jets have been susceptible to the pass as they rank 29th in pass defense. If the run game gets locked up then Newton could take control through the pass, but the Patriots are built on the run so they will do everything they can to run the ball down their throats.
The defense will also be key to a win, the Jets offense with Darnold wasn’t all that and with Flacco it has been worse, the Patriots defense has had some issues, mainly in the run, but they still rank 12th in points allowed, seventh in the pass and 28th in the run. The Jets are sloppy offensively and don’t have the run game to dominate the Patriots run defense, force Flacco into some pressured throws and potentially turnovers as well as running the clock offensively and a win is almost certain.
How the Jets will win
The Jets have a ton of issues this season and it will take a while lot for them to come away with a victory. The best chance they can do to win the game is on the defensive end and force Cam Newton to pass the ball. Except for two games this season (one of them he didn’t even get 160 yards) Newton has not been good at throwing the ball, now he doesn’t have the best receivers to throw to, but it still has not been good. If you can slow down that run game of the Patriots, and it is possible with your defense, then it will force Newton to beat you through the air.
The defense will be the best chance for the Jets to win this game because the offense has not been good no matter who is at quarterback. This season the Jets rank 32nd in points per game, 32nd in the pass game and 22nd in the run game. Even a former Super Bowl MVP winner, (even though he is no longer starter quality) Joe Flacco can’t help lead this offense into some sort of relevance. Flacco and company will now be going against one of the better pass defenses in the game, so involving the run game will be of vital importance.
The run game this season has been the Patriots achilleas heel and it could be once again this game, but this is an offense where even if they do well, they cannot be relied upon. This is a consistent offense, not in a good way though, this is a game where they need some inconsistency from the offense and if that can happen, they could pull off the home upset.
Again, the offense cannot be trusted so the defense will need to play a nearly perfect game against this flawed offense. By stopping the run, it will force Newton to pass and if you can force Newton to rush the pass it could lead to turnovers and short fields for the offense. That is how they will win, force turnovers and get an inconsistent offense compared to the rest of the season.
Final Analysis
These are two teams that probably should be trending in opposite directions but that is not what we are seeing. The Jets are just not a good team and the Patriots are not playing well right now, one of those has to give this game. Okay, it could be a very sloppy game but there is a good chance that someone will win this game and it will not end in a tie. With that logic of someone winning this game I will defer to head coached instead of players and Belichick is a whole lot easier to place faith in than Gase, therefore I am giving the Pats this victory in a low scoring sloppy game.
Score: Patriots 19, Jets 12