The AFC North is not up for grabs for three or even four teams like the NFC East is, but with the Steelers recent losses to the Football Team and the Bills it means the Browns have a chance to sneak their way to a division victory. Now, nothing will change this week in the standings no matter what happens, the Ravens are 7-5, the Browns are 9-3, and the Steelers are 11-2, but this week could determine the wild card slots and the division winner for these teams.
Cleveland currently has the number one wild card slot in the AFC and a win here will only increase their odds of getting the number one wild card spot and of potentially winning the division. The Ravens on the other hand are on the outside looking in right now and even with a win they would be on the outside looking in, even though they would be tied for seventh place. It’s safe to say that this game has more at stake than just a divisional matchup.
Cleveland has already done something that they have not done since 2007 in getting at least nine wins on the season, now they are looking to take the next step in getting double-digit wins (something not done since 2007) and make the playoffs (something not done since 2002). While they are in a very good position to make the playoffs, they are a bit of an anomaly for a 9-3 team. The Browns have a negative point differential which is weird but that is because they have only scored 19 points in their losses compared to 92 points allowed. Now they get Baltimore who is one of the teams that beat them earlier in the season by a score of 38-6.
Then we have Baltimore who could be healthy for the first time in about a month. We all know the COVID-19 outbreak within the organization and that led to numerous players being out for a game to multiple games, then we have injuries such as Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams who are starting to look better and could make consecutive starts together for the first time since weeks eight and nine. Then we have guys like Mark Andrews who is Lamar Jackson’s favorite target back off the COVID list, so even though they are still dealing with injuries, this is the healthiest the team has been since week nine when they played the Colts.
When these teams played earlier in the season (week one) the Ravens absolutely torched the Browns, giving them their largest loss and the Ravens their largest victory of the season. That in large part was due to their offense rolling in both the pass and run, while defensively holding the Browns pass game down and forcing three turnovers. This will be a game that will heavily feature the run game since these teams rank one and two in the rush offense this season. Cleveland has only failed to reach 100 rushing yards twice this season and the Ravens are coming off their best rushing game, gaining 294 yards, so which team will run their way to victory?
Monday Night Football: Ravens at Browns
Kickoff: Monday, Dec. 14 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Ravens -3
How the Ravens will win
Baltimore had its first game back almost fully healthy in almost a month last week against Dallas and their offense (specifically their run offense) looked unstoppable. While 294 yards on the ground may only be a dream, what is not a dream is that Cleveland’s defense is susceptible to the pass. The first time these teams met the Ravens went for 270 yards through the air, the most they have collected all season. That may not seem like much, but for a defense that is 100% run first that is not a bad number. The biggest question in recent weeks though is can their pass offense look like that again? Last week and for much of the season it looks as if Jackson has taken a bit of a step back in the passing game, that may be true, but when his arm angle is correct, he is still a very accurate passer. He can do the same this week against a secondary that is still not that great.
Though much of the yardage was in garbage time last week, Cleveland allowed their most passing yards they have since week 13. Now this was not a huge problem since their offense got them out to a huge lead, but it could have been a problem because even though most of Tennessee’s yards were in garbage time, they only ended up winning by six points. Cleveland’s defense came to play early in the game, forcing three turnovers as well as limiting the run game to 62 yards. They can do that this game, but the Ravens rush offense is overall greater than the Titans because the mix things up which can make things tough.
Baltimore has been utilizing J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards more and together they keep defenses on their toes because you never know what you’re going to get. These two rack up the yardage well that it immediately opens up the passing game and this week with Mark Andrews back that pass game should be better than it has been in recent weeks. Some more good news, Marquise Brown made some huge plays last week so Jackson and Brown may finally be on the same page, add on to that Willie Snead is back and Baltimore’s offense could be in full force this game. This should only help add to the offense that ranks 12th in points, 31st in the pass game, and first in the run.
The offense is important no doubt, but Lamar can do wonderous things with the ball, the more important part is on the defensive side. Baltimore ended up winning the game by a comfortable margin last week, but the defense prevented some concern for this week. They allowed over 100 yards on the ground as well as 277 yards through the air, both of these aspects will need to improve this game. Cleveland proved they can pass last week, but much like Baltimore they are a run first team. Baltimore could be at full health which will do wonders for the fourth ranked defense in points allowed, 13th in the pass and 13th in the run, but the first time these teams met Cleveland’s run was able to find holes, for the best chance force them to pass, if they are going to beat you make it be by the pass.
How the Browns will win
For anyone wondering whether or not Baker Mayfield can pass, last week he proved that he can. The Browns passed for the most yards all season as well as rushing for over 100 yards, everything was working for them. This game they will need that same type of performance and if that is what we get then the Browns have a perfect recipe to pull off the “upset”. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt present one of the league’s best one-two punches out of the backfield and they have proved that at points this season. The first meeting between these teams they did not really show how dangerous they are together, but this is when they easily can. The outside run has been a weakness for the run all season long for Baltimore so if they plan to run outside the guards, they can take advantage early.
If for some reason the run does not work, then the pass will be important, and Baltimore does have some key injuries in the secondary that could be a downfall against this defense. Obviously, Cleveland no longer has OBJ due to injury, but ever since that injury they have become a much more balance attack through the air as well as getting Jarvis Landry involved like he should be. Jimmy Smith is questionable for the game so if he does not play then the secondary for Baltimore becomes a little thinner and Cleveland could have an advantage through the air. Baltimore has been an up and down defense with its highs (Pittsburgh second meeting) and its lows (Dallas) so Cleveland could be in a good position with their 14th ranked offense in scoring, 27th in the pass, and third in the run, especially after last week’s performance.
Then we get to Cleveland’s defense and they have struggled in defending the pass this season, luckily Baltimore does not rely on the pass. This week may be a little different considering Willie Snead and Mark Andrews are back, but don’t expect the game plan of run, run, run to change that much. Baltimore has some great running backs on their roster and then Lamar Jackson at quarterback who can beat you with both his arm and his legs. Again, Jackson has not been as proficient passing as last season, so the plan sounds simple, take away the run and force the pass.
Of course, that sounds easy, but it will be far from easy. Jackson can make something out of nothing and so can the running backs, so if you want any chance to force the pass then penetration by the defensive line is a must. This is something that they have been doing well this season, they have been able to get that penetration. If they stop the run, then they will be forced to pass and with one of the best pass rushers in the league in Myles Garrett it could be exactly where they want to get them. Maybe not though, because while Garrett makes the rush good, if Jackson can get the ball out quick or find his way out of the rush it will come to bite them. While it could hurt them, this is how you have to beat them, force the Ravens to pass, taking away the run game is the most important part.
Final Analysis
Both of these teams need this win to help them in seeding for the playoffs, so it is tough to say who really needs this game more. At first glance it looks like Baltimore needs this game considering they are out of the playoffs looking in, but they have a favorable schedule the rest of the way. The Browns have one as well, but they have Pittsburgh week 17 so this game could make it so week 17 decides the division. The run game will be the story of this game, but the defense who can force more turnovers as well as the pass offense that plays the best will get this game. Cleveland showed they can do it, but can they do it consistently? Baltimore on the other hand is mostly at full health and I think that will carry them.
Score: Ravens 27, Browns 23