Entering this game these two teams are about where they were expected to be maybe with a few exceptions. The Buccaneers are 5-2 and currently are tied for first place in the NFC South with the Saints who also sit at 5-2 (if they win they are in sole possession of first), and the Giants are in fourth place in the NFC East at 1-6 (a win would put them tied for third). This means that this Monday night game may not be very competitive, but if there is one thing that the NFL has taught us (especially this season) is that anything can happen any given week.
Not only does this game feature two teams that are trending in opposite directions, but it features another pair of opposites in the quarterbacks. The Buccaneers feature the GOAT Tom Brady and the Giants feature Daniel Jones, the second-year quarterback the Giants are desperately hoping is the future of the team.
We will have to wait and see if Jones is ready to take that step into franchise QB or not, but there is no denying that winning big games such as this will help solidify you as the leader of the franchise. However, another loss for Jones (assuming he doesn’t play terrible) does not mean he is suddenly out of a starting job. New York was not expected to have a great offense entering the season, then Barkley went down and it made his job about 10 times harder.
While it may be harder for Jones due to the talent on the offensive end, this game will be tough for him due to the defensive prowess that the Buccaneers show.
This is about the exact opposite that the opposing QB in Brady has, Brady has the best offense that he has had in years to go along with a top tier defense, everything that could make the Buccaneers Super Bowl contenders.
The myth that Brady was washed has been thrown out the window in the early parts of this season, in fact, Brady is on pace to have a better than average season he would have in his 20 seasons in New England. (and he’s not even in the MVP conversation).
So, by just looking at a quick overview of each of these teams it should be pretty clear who is going to win this game. While that may come out to be true, that is why we play the games and don’t just assign wins to who would win on paper. Sure, the Buccaneers should win this game, but unexpected things happen all the time in not just the NFL, but sports in general, will tonight be one of those games that drops Brady’s career record against the Giants (playoffs included) to 4-4?
Monday Night Football: Tampa Bay at New York (Giants)
Kickoff: Monday, Nov. 2 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Tampa Bay -12.5
Buccaneers
After starting the season off with an opening game loss to the Saints, the Buccaneers have won five out of six games with their only loss coming by one point to the Chicago Bears in week five. Since that second loss of the season the Bucs have won two straight by a combined 53 points while scoring a combined 83 points, that bodes well tonight against a team that only has one win on the season. One win may not seem great by the Giants and it’s not, but over the past three weeks they are 1-2 with the combined scores of the games being 75-78 in favor of the opponents. That means that they will not make it easy for the Buccaneers to march in and come away with a victory.
We will get into the Giants though, for now let’s dig into the visiting Buccaneers and see how they’ll win the game.
On the offensive end the play starts with Tom Brady, a role he is pretty used too, and the Brady led offense ranks second overall in points per game at 31.7, eighth in the pass, and 22nd in the run. Sure, the Buccaneers offense has dealt with injuries including Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and O.J. Howard on the offensive end, but at this point in the season try to find a team that has not dealt with injuries. Godwin will be out this game as well as potentially Rob Gronkowski, and Scott Miller, but those latter two have been playing through their injuries so far this season, I don’t see that changing this week.
Even if they have all of the injuries that keep those players out, they have a run game that when at full health could do a ton of damage in Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette. Jones and Fournette are excellent complements to the pass game and when the pass game is struggling, they help open things back up. This will not necessarily be an easy offensive game though for Tampa because the Giants (while not having a very good record) have a very good defense.
The Giants have the 14th ranked scoring defense, tied with the Buffalo Bills at 24.9 points per game, down from 28.2 last season. Not only do they rank in the top half of the league when it comes to points allowed, but they also rank in the top half of the league in the run defense (ninth) and just fall into the bottom third when it comes to the pass defense (21st). The pass defense has its issues which is more than enough for Brady to take advantage.
The run of Jones and Fournette may not be the feature of the Bucs offense this week but they will be used sparingly and in the correct situations. Although they will not be the focal point of the offense, the run should be able to do enough to open the pass game when needed. If the run can open the pass game, then they will roll and if the Bucs are at full strength (minus Godwin) they should have no issue moving the ball. If the Giants want any chance, they have to force turnovers into points since defense is where they thrive compared to the offense, but this looks like it could be another great game on the offense end for Tampa.
Giants
The Giants defense may not be nearly as bad as their offense, but they do not have a great enough defense that will lead them to wins like the 2000 Ravens. Not many teams have a defense as good as the Ravens did that season, but most teams also have a better offense then that team did, the Giants are worse at both. That is not a knock on them defensively, but it is definitely a knock on them on the offensive end. They had a chance to be similar on the offensive end with a subpar quarterback to pair with a great running back in Barkley, but that dream died early in the season.
Without a true number one running back, the offense has seen its number of issues and now they go against one of the best defenses in the league. Currently the Giants have the 31st ranked offense in points per game at 17.4 while ranking 30th in the pass game and 27th in the run game. The Buccaneers defense on the other hand rank tied for sixth in points allowed per game at 20.3 while ranking 12th in the pass and first in the run defense. This makes the job of Jones and company even tougher, but to be the main man you have to win the big games.
It doesn’t help Jones that the Giants have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, but Jones cannot control that. Sometimes quarterbacks attempt to do it all even when they are not in control of the outcome, Jones cannot fall into that trap like he has for some games this season. That doesn’t mean don’t try, but that means be smart with the decisions you are making because if you are not against a team like this then they will make you pay.
The Giants defense is pretty good, but the only chance the Giants have to win this game is hoping that both sides of the ball play well and this immediately places the pressure back on Jones. It’s safe to say that Jones has not looked good this season, 1,410 yards, 61.9 completion %, five touchdowns, and seven interceptions, but that doesn’t mean it can’t get better. Jones’s best weapons include Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, and Golden Tate; now he needs to put together drives that stay on the field long enough to spread the ball around.
The pass game could put together some good drives, but the run game (especially with Devonta Freeman being out) could be in some serious trouble. While it may not do much, the one thing that cannot happen in the Giants offense is become one dimensional too early in the game, if they do that, they have no shot of winning.
This will not be an easy game for the Giants to win, but now is where they need to see the former first round draft pick Daniel Jones show out.
Final Analysis
This is a game that looks to be over before it even starts. For obvious reasons we know why we can’t say that for certain though (mainly because if we’re wrong it makes us look worse), but everything points to Tampa Bay this game. That doesn’t mean New York won’t surprise us though. In their past three games they have only had a point differential of -3 points, so they have been in all of the games which means they are getting better as a team. But now they go against a team that has been blowing out teams recently, so which will we see, a close game or blowout?
I am going with Tampa to win this game, but I think it will be a closer game than it maybe should.
Score: Buccaneers 30, Giants 22