Championship weekend is finally here and after a long time where it was thought there was no chance the end of the season would be seen, here we are. By seeding we almost had a chance to see the top four teams in the league, two in each conference, but after a victory by the Buccaneers we are now only getting three of the “best teams” (what a shame).
Every team who has made it this far has staked their claim as to why they deserve to make it and win the Super Bowl and no matter what happens we will see a story book ending. For Kansas City they will be the first back-to-back champions since the New England Patriots in the 2003-04 season. The Bills, well, they have already reached their first playoff win since 1995 and now they are looking for their first Lombardi trophy after four failed attempts. Over in the NFC we have the Packers who, with a win, seem to be on the path of having the first player to win the Super Bowl and the MVP in the same season since Kurt Warner with the St. Louis Rams in 1999. Finally, we have the Buccaneers who won their first playoff game since 2002 (Super Bowl win) and are looking to win a second at their home field in Tampa while also giving Tom Brady a potential retirement gift.
Each team has something special they will have achieved if a victory is achieved, but in order to get to that point we need to get through this week first. We have already had countless great moments in this year’s postseason and with the final week before the Super Bowl, we are bound to see more but only two can advance, who has what it takes?
Rank Green Bay Packers (14-3)
1
Divisional Round Result: 32-18 W against Los Angeles Rams
Path to the Super Bowl: Make the Buccaneers offense beat you
Don’t get it twisted, the Packers can compete with any team in the NFL in a strictly offensive battle, but the first time these teams met they were not able to get their offense rolling. That is not the concern this game, the offense should play much better than that game, but the Buccaneers offense is also playing much better, so you don’t want to keep it close. Comparing Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers this season would be a wildly unfair because one is nearing retirement (Brees) and one is playing at an MVP level and should win the award (Rodgers), but how the Bucs made it to this game was due to their defense. While Tampa is playing better offensively than they were at the beginning of the season, they are still at their best when Brady does not have to lead them to a win. Total yards are not the be all end all stat to use when determining the effectiveness of an offense, but in their victory last week and their victory against the Packers, (the two most important games pertinent to this game) defensive turnovers were the name of the game. They forced four last week and two in their previous meeting, all of which negated offensive drives and gave Tampa great field position. This offense does not need any gifted opportunities with the talent they have. Rodgers had an uncharacteristic game the first time throwing two of his five interceptions on the year, this game limit them and force an offense without the help of their defense to beat you.
Rank Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
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Divisional Round Result: 22-17 W against Cleveland
Path to the Super Bowl: Slow down Allen and the pass game
It was honestly pretty tough trying to say that the Chiefs do not deserve to be the top team in the power rankings, especially since they’ve been there all season, but with the uncertain status of Patrick Mahomes it only seems right. Mahomes has taken large steps in looking like he will be able to play in the game, but what status will he be in. A fully healthy Mahomes immediately puts them back at the top and a Chiefs team with Henne at the helm would rank at the bottom, but one with Mahomes not at 100% ranks somewhere in the middle. Since we still don’t know what we will be seeing in terms of the QB situation this game will come down to defense for Kansas City. It is entirely possible that Mahomes will be there at full strength and even if he is the best way to ensure your spot in the Super Bowl is to slow down Allen in the pass. Buffalo was all air last week until the end when they started running, but the pass was not impressive at all. Allen was 23-37 with 206 yards and one touchdown in the game, it’s safe to say Baltimore held him in check. The offense only put up 10 points and most times that will not be good enough to win. Play a similar defensive game to what Baltimore did because it will keep you in the game whether they have Mahomes or Henne at QB.
Rank Buffalo Bills (15-3)
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Divisional Round Result: 17-3 W against Baltimore
Path to the Super Bowl: Get pressure on the QB
While Buffalo did blitz a decent number of times in the game against Baltimore, they really didn’t even need it because they were getting their four-man rush from the defensive line to Jackson throughout the game. They forced four sacks on the day, but they forced rushed throws which eventually led to a pick-six due to that pressure. Now to be fair, the Ravens do not have a great offensive line when it comes to blocking the pass, but it doesn’t matter because the Bills were just that dominant. Kansas City’s line is much better than Baltimore’s in the pass and even though they have their own issues they should keep their QB safer. Kansas City is clearly hoping that the QB they are blocking for will be Mahomes, but no matter who is back there they will need some great protection, especially if the Allen leads the Bills offense to points nearly every drive. If Mahomes is playing they need to protect their guy who will not be 100% and if Henne is starting they need to give him as much time as possible since he is not Mahomes. Last week was not an offensive game for Buffalo, but doing that twice in a row is tough, so the Chiefs will need their offense at full force, and it starts up front. If Buffalo forces pressure their chances of advancing increase greatly.
Rank Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-5)
4
Divisional Round Result: 30-20 W against New Orleans
Path to the Super Bowl: Force Turnovers
Tampa’s offense may not have always looked as great as they were supposed to with the G.O.A.T joining them this season, but they have looked good when it has mattered and that is a large reason why they are in the championship game. The Buccaneers have both a top ten offense and defense and they play their best when the defense helps out the offense. When the Bucs force turnovers on the defensive end while holding onto the ball offensively then they are almost guaranteed to win, going 6-0 in such games this season, including their most recent playoff game. This was the story the last time these two teams met, they forced two turnovers while holding onto the ball and they ended up winning 38-10. Obviously, that is what they are hoping for this game, but they will have to deal with the perennial MVP in Rodgers. They forced Rodgers into two interceptions last meeting, if they can somehow find a way to do that again they are in a great situation, if not it is up in the air. The Bucs offense has been playing better of late, but we have always seen the defense helping out, so they need to have a similar game. The Bucs can easily win if their defense does not force turnovers, but with how well rounded the Packers offense is then the Bucs will need to force turnovers just to keep points off the board and if they do then Brady makes yet another Super Bowl.