The MLB season is now officially over, with the Nationals capturing their first World Series title in their franchise history. The offseason is now upon us and with that means that free agency is now upon us. Now the season within the offseason is here and it will determine what players will land in different locations to start the upcoming season.
Last season free agency was run through two marquee players, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, both of which signed a contract for at least $300 million. This season might not have the big-name free agents that will sign that type of contract, but there are still top tier players that will make a difference on any team. In this list we will be discussing the top-15 free agents and players who have not exercised their option if they had one for the upcoming season
As of yesterday, the free agent process has begun, and if it is anything like last season, we have to be prepared for a marathon rather than a sprint.
1. Gerrit Cole – 20-5, 2.5 ERA
Last year’s free agency had two big-name position players to hype up the period, this time around there are two big-name pitchers and this starts with potential Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. Cole is entering his age 29 season and is coming off the best season of his career. There was no better time for Cole to have this type of season as he is going to get a large pay day in free agency.
After a heart-breaking loss in the World Series don’t be surprised if this motivates Cole to go to a contender in the upcoming season. It is not too often that a team has a chance to get a franchise pitcher on the free agent market, so Cole will be getting his money one way or another. Due to this motivation we may see Cole’s potential team list dwindle down into just contenders for the next couple of years. As of right now there seems to be at least four contenders in the mix for Cole: The Astros, Dodgers, Phillies, and Yankees.
2. Anthony Rendon – .319/.412/.598/.1.010, 34 HR, 126 RBI
Rendon coming off the best season of his career, one that placed him in the top three in the MVP voting and one that helped the Nationals capture their first World Series title. Now that Rendon has a championship under his belt there are two possible options for Rendon going forward, go to the place that is offering the best deal or go to a contending team even if it is not as much money as he could be making.
The Nationals obviously want to lock him up moving forward, but this might be harder than it seems because they have another top player who is a free agent this season. Because of this the Nationals may only try to get him to sign a one-year deal with them. This may not be enough to resign the third baseman and could lead him into another destination for the upcoming season. Any team in need of a third baseman for the upcoming years will be looking at Rendon as a possible answer. Right now, there are a couple teams in the mix, some contenders and some upstart teams: The Nationals, Rangers, Dodgers, and Phillies.
3. Stephen Strasburg – 18-6, 3.32 ERA
Going into this season it seemed certain that Strasburg would exercise his option and return to the Nationals next season. After the great postseason that Strasburg posted he did not exercise his option and now he is a free agent. The World Series MVP had a bounce back season and positioned himself well as one of the top pitchers in this free agent class.
With both Strasburg and Rendon as free agents this season it seems more likely that they will resign one of these players as oppose to two. Strasburg, like Rendon now has his championship which gives him the same options as Rendon. However, Strasburg is a competitor who has bounced back from adversity before, he is not going to choose a team with no chance to win, putting him in the same boat as Cole. Strasburg will go somewhere where there is a possibility of winning soon so he has limited options: The Nationals, Dodgers, Twins, Cubs, and Padres.
4. Zach Wheeler – 11-8, 3.96 ERA
Thus far in Wheeler’s career he has been average, however he has the arm talent to become one of the best underrated pitchers in the league. Wheeler has the type of stuff that is similar to Gerrit Cole, but he will not be nearly as expensive to get. Ever since Wheeler returned from Tommy John surgery, he has been a consistently good pitcher and this past season he posted his best strikeout to walk ratio of his career.
Now three years out from surgery he is starting to post the best numbers of his career. Finally, he is starting to become more than just a flamethrower on the mound, and he is starting to pick at hitters’ weaknesses on the mound, helping make him one of the best free agents for the upcoming seasons to go to any team. Wheeler will be targeted by contending teams and teams that will be able to fit him into their budget: The Mets, Twins, Phillies, Braves, Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, White Sox, Angels, and Brewers.
5. Yasmani Grandal – .246/.380/.468/.848, 28 HR, 77 RBI
Grandal has been one of the best catchers in the MLB over the last two seasons, both his offensive power numbers and his defense are something that any team in the league would want. Grandal bet on himself last season, signing a one-year contract in hopes for a larger contract this season, it looks like his bet will pay off for him as teams are always looking for a lockdown catcher to man the backstop.
Now Grandal hits the market without the threat of a qualifying offer, meaning that a long-term contract is most likely in his future. Teams are always in need for a consistent player both offensively and defensively at the catcher position and over the last two seasons only J.T. Realmuto has been better. Grandal, holding out for a better average annual value may have put himself in the running for many teams, from contenders to rebuilders, including: The Brewers, Braves, Rays, White Sox, Angels, and Rangers.
6.Josh Donaldson – .259/.379/.521/.900, 37 HR, 94 RBI
Although Donaldson may not be as good as he was during his MVP campaign, he is still a threat whenever he comes up to the plate. This along with his reliable defense at the hot corner should be enough to capture a multi-year contract. Donaldson has been in the league long enough that he has earned the right to do anything he wants, he can go to a team looking to contend, or he can go and chase the money.
At this point in his career it looks more like he will want to go to a team that has a chance to win the World Series, making the Atlanta Braves strong suitors to retain Donaldson. However, the price will still have to be right for the former MVP so there will be a couple of teams in the running, including: The Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals, and Twins.
7. Hyun-Jin Ryu – 14-5, 2.32 ERA
Hyun-Jin Ryu’s last two seasons have been good enough to earn him a strong contract this offseason, even if it was an injury shortened season in 2018. Ryu will not give you anything special in the velocity category, but he puts the ball where batters are not going to be able to easily square him up. Ryu is more of a pitcher that would be considered valuable at the start of the century, now teams want the flamethrowers who can throw it right past people, not induce weak contact.
Even though Ryu might not be the type of pitcher that teams want now, there is no doubt that Ryu has earned himself a healthy contract in the upcoming seasons. The biggest question with him is durability, and this will be something that may bring his value down a little bit. Ryu has played second fiddle for most of his career to this point in his career and now he may want to play the lead, making his options up and coming teams or teams he can be an ace: The Angels, Rangers, Giants, Padres, and Red Sox.
8. Madison Bumgarner – 9-9, 3.9 ERA
Bumgarner is one of the biggest names in this year’s free agent class, but there is one glaring concern for teams looking at the 30-year-old, the decrease in velocity. This may not be a huge problem if he can change the way he pitches by relying more on movement and off-speed pitches. Last season he worked that in effectively, using his curveball more than seasons past.
Bumgarner has one big advantage over some other pitchers in this free agent class, he is a lefty. Being a lefty automatically makes you more valuable and this is no different for one of the better pitchers in the league. Whatever team Bumgarner ends up with will find a way to work to make him as effective as he once was by using his movement that he has had for years. Knowing the success of Bumgarner in the postseason there will definitely be suitors that are looking to make a World Series push: The Twins, Yankees, Padres, Rangers, Braves, and Brewers.
9. Nicholas Castellanos – .289/.337/.525/.863, 27 HR, 73 RBI
Castellanos had a stupendous second half of the season after getting traded to the Cubs, however this may not be enough to attract suitors to a high-end contract after years of being just an above average player. Since Castellanos is one of the best options at the outfield position this offseason teams should look at him highly.
However, defense is an issue with Castellanos which could prevent a situation similar to J.D. Martinez, where he will primarily be a DH but still venture out to the outfield from time to time. This would suit Castellanos better but limits his options to AL teams. Even with subpar defense he will still be an option for NL teams, but they will have to be willing to sacrifice defense for offense. Teams include: The Cubs, White Sox, Indians, Angels, Reds, and Giants
10. Dallas Keuchel – 8-8, 3.75 ERA
It was a surprise to everyone last season when Keuchel was not signed until about halfway through the season by the Atlanta Braves. Once he was on a team, he pitched acceptable, but nowhere near where he expected to be. Keuchel did what Keuchel does, posting a great ground ball rate but not striking out too many batters. This is something that could help his status in that he can keep the ball in the ballpark with the best of them.
However, when balls were hit in the air they went out about a quarter of the time. This could be an area of concern when looking at him, especially for a guy who doesn’t have many swing and misses, but he should be signed before the upcoming season now that he won’t have a draft compensation attached with him. After last season Keuchel will be keeping his options open and will be willing to go to any team and can still help lead a rotation in today’s game. All teams are open on Keuchel, and it could be rebuilding teams looking to capture him for the season, including: The White Sox, Padres, Astros, and Red Sox.
11. Marcell Ozuna – .241/.328/.472/.800, 29 HR, 89 RBI
Only three seasons ago Ozuna was a potential future MVP, since then his production has decreased at both the plate and in the field. Ozuna’s most recent season was his least productive since his rookie season although he was much more of a power threat. Defensively Ozuna was a former gold glover and now he is nowhere near where he once was in that category.
This places him in a similar situation to Castellanos when it comes to the free agent market. Ozuna still provides a productive bat when it comes to any lineup and he is expected to join a new team if he does not accept the qualifying offer from the Cardinals. Ozuna does have some good analytic numbers which should help his case this offseason. Ozuna could make the leap to either league where he should see success at the plat based off recent numbers that Ozuna has posted. Since he is expected to move, these teams seem like they will be a good landing spot: The Tigers, Giants, Marlins, Padres, Reds, and Royals.
12. Jake Odorizzi – 15-7, 3.51 ERA
Odorizzi bolstered his free agent status by being a first-time all-star last season. Another area that helps him out is that he is consistently relied upon to remain on the staff throughout the season. However, one concern about Odorizzi is his ability to go deep into games. Last season Odorizzi lasted an average of 5.3 innings per start, placing him 80th in the league out of all qualified starting pitchers in average length of games.
This does come as some concern for teams that do not have strong bullpens but being able to last the whole season will do him well in this free agent class. Odorizzi will not be an ace for any team he will be on but will be a good middle of the rotation arm that many teams can take advantage of. He may not have a lot of teams go after him this offseason, but enough teams will make an offer to make it interesting, however, right now it looks like the Twins are in the lead to keep him.
13. Didi Gregorius – .238/.276/.441/.718, 16 HR, 61 RBI
Gregorius was always going to be treated unfairly in New York after replacing the long-loved shortstop Derek Jeter. Although he was never going to be Jeter, he did a very good job to step into his role, a great defender and a below average fielder he is not what teams are necessarily looking for, but he will be a great addition.
However, in 2017 and 2018 his bat started to come alive and he became a true threat on all levels as a shortstop. He took a little bit of a production slip last season which hurts his stock and it may be time to look for a new home, especially with the Yankees stacked infield. The best chance for Gregorius may be to take a one-year deal to up those hitting stats to get a larger contract for the upcoming season. Not all teams will look for a one year guy, but up and coming teams will, these include: The Reds, Marlins, and Phillies
14. Will Smith – 6-0, 2.76 ERA, 34 SV
Smith is one of the best lefty relievers in the game who improved his stock by making his first all-star team this season. Smith doesn’t have impressive speed, but he is consistent on the bump and can be a great arm to add to any bullpen. Even without great velocity he still finds a way to miss bats which makes him extremely valuable to any team. Every team will be looking at him to potentially add to their bullpen: The Twins, Nationals, Phillies, Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Rays.
15. Edwin Encarnación – .244/.344/.531/.875, 34 HR, 86 RBI
Encarnación is a one trick pony at this point of his career, but it is a pretty good trick since he is still one of the most explosive power hitters in the game. He will strictly be a DH who can play first base from time to time. Encarnación will have to find a lineup that will fit in with what he brings to the table and is in need of a power bat. This limits him to an AL squad, but will be a much-needed bat who may come to be trade bait next season, teams include: The White Sox, Rays, Yankees, and Indians.
Honorable Mention: Dellin Betances
If Betances can return to his pre-injury form he could be great, but after partially tearing his left achilles in his debut following a shoulder injury there will be questions as to whether Betances can return to what he once was. With the tear in late September there is a limited chance the Betances will be ready to go at all next season, therefore when he is ready it makes sense to hold a showcase to teams to show what he can do. If Betances returns to what he once was then he will be a welcomed addition to any roster.