The NFL season in some ways feels like it just started and in less than 48 hours we will be reaching the end of the 2020-21 season. Entering the season, the two biggest storylines were ironically about the two teams competing against each other in the Super Bowl. For Kansas City it was whether or not they could make it back to the promised land and become the first back-to-back Super Bowl winner since the 2003-2004 New England Patriots. Then for the Buccaneers they were involved with the Patriots in the story of whether or not the reason for the dynasty was due to Brady or due to Belichick.
Both of these questions are still up in the air, it seems like Brady was the reason, but we can’t really say that due to the differences in the two rosters, but we will get answers to both of them after this game. If the Buccaneers win then we can say, whether right or wrong, that Brady was the bigger part of the success and if the Chiefs win or lose then we will have the answer to whether they can win back-to-back Super Bowls.
While this game may be between the Chiefs and the Buccaneers the bigger story throughout the entire two-week build to this game has been the young GOAT in Patrick Mahomes going against the GOAT in Tom Brady. Mahomes and the Chiefs won the first meeting in Tampa 27-24, they are looking to do the exact same thing in this meeting in Tampa Bay.
The other big news heading into this game is that for the first time in Super Bowl history, there will be a team that is playing a “home” Super Bowl. Normally, the Super Bowl is played in a warm weather stadium and/or a domed stadium and with the way things have worked out in the past, all the previous games have been neutral site games with the road and home teams rotating on a yearly basis. This time around will be different because the game is held in Tampa Bay and the Buccaneers made it to the game while being the home team. Even if they were on the “road” this game they would still have a home field advantage due to the location, but the real story will be whether or not this makes any difference in the outcome in the game.
The season has been boiling to this point and either way we will be seeing history in this game, either the Chiefs and Mahomes will go back-to-back or the Buccaneers will win, and Brady would become only the second starting QB to win the Super Bowl with two separate teams (Peyton Manning). Currently, Brady has joined Manning, Craig Morton, and Kurt Warner as the only starting QBs to start separate Super Bowls with two teams, but what better ending would there be then Brady joining his long-time foe Manning.
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 7 at 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Spread: Chiefs -3
Kansas City Chiefs
Three weeks ago, in the divisional round matchup the Chiefs had a ginormous scare against the Browns as Patrick Mahomes got tackled and was wobbly on his way up, later to be found that he had a concussion and his status for the rest of that game and the championship game were up in the air. He was ruled out for the remainder of the Browns game and though they ended up winning the game how ready was he going to be for the Bills game. With only a week to prepare for the game Chiefs fans were in for one of the longest weeks in many of their football lives. It eventually turned out that he was cleared to play against the Bills and the Chiefs played great all game long to defeat the Bills in the championship game 38-24.
Let’s start with Mahomes. The passing attack of Kansas City looked the best it has all season two weeks ago as Mahomes went 29-38 with 325 passing yards and three touchdowns. On top of that he only took one sack against a team that absolutely decimated the Ravens offensive line. If we didn’t see it live there would be almost no thought that Mahomes was questionable for the game with a concussion due to his excellent performance. Outside of Mahomes, maybe the most impressive part of the team that game was the offensive line who was not at full health slow down the Bills rush to keep Mahomes safe.
That will be one of the biggest concerns this game, the offensive line is still not at full health and will be without left tackle Eric Fisher due to an Achilles injury, so the left side is a bit weak. The Buccaneers could easily take advantage of the weak left side of the line and that is exactly what Kansas City has to make sure does not happen. Mahomes is not necessarily a mobile QB, but he is an elusive QB who can run when he needs to, so the key for the offensive line will be protect him for long enough and keep some holes open so he does not get trapped and can escape if he needs to. With the receiving core that the Chiefs have it is one where the QB needs time in the pocket to allow his receivers to get open, they don’t do a lot of the quick passes unless they absolutely need to.
The offense can change at will based on what the defense is showing, but they are at their best when they take deep shots down the field to Hill, Hardman, and Kelce. The best thing about all of these receivers as well is that they are not just deep threats, they are all extremely dangerous in the middle of the field and in intermediate routes, especially Kelce. Like the regular season, Kelce will be a go to receivers as well as a security blanket whenever Mahomes is in trouble and having someone as reliable as him will open many parts of the offense up, including the run?
It looks as though Bell and Edwards-Helaire will be a full-go come game time and they will be important to help keep things balanced. The Buccaneers have an excellent run defense, but the Chiefs will need to keep them honest and not just allow them to cover the pass. These two should help out of the backfield and then you have Hardman who is always a threat on a reverse to break off a big run, as the Buccaneers you cannot forget about the run. They may not have a 50/50 split of run and passes, but if the Chiefs want to be an unstoppable weapon then they need to utilize the run game, if anything just to throw Tampa off the scent. They passed all over Tampa last time they met and added 87 rushing yards, but they struggled finding the endzone, this time they need to find the endzone.
Then we move to the defense who may not be the best at defending the run, but they are up there with the best of the best in the pass defense. In both of their playoff games they have allowed over 100 rushing yards, but they have held the pass to under 250 in both games as well. If they can do this against an offense in Tampa who prefers to throw the ball, then they will take that all day. Tampa has some good runners out of the backfield, but their pass offense has been finding their groove and with the talent they have they like to throw the ball. They have been a balanced offense in the playoffs, but in their first meeting they were able to throw all over this defense, this is what the Chiefs cannot allow. If they can’t stop the pass then they will not be able to slow down the offense and their only way out will be via the turnover, but you can’t count on that. Force pressure on Brady (something you really didn’t do last time) and get some sacks or force turnovers and allow your offense to work.
Kansas City has had three forced turnovers this postseason, but the Buccaneers have also showed they can overcome turnovers by their offense. If your defense can force those turnovers, then you cannot give the ball back and if you do all of this then you become back-to-back champions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If Brady is not already solidified as the GOAT, a win with the Buccaneers will surely do it. Before I go any further into the Buccaneers, I just want to state this for anyone still claiming that Brady led this bunch of rag-tag players to the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers had an impressive roster last season that got even better this season and actually has turned into one of the best rosters in the NFL. What Brady has done is nonetheless impressive, the Buccaneers have a great team and needed someone like Brady to put them in Super Bowl contention.
Now that that has been said it is time to talk about the Buccaneers. Entering the season, we knew they had the talent, but we didn’t know what type of chemistry they would have. We saw some ups and downs, but after their bye week in week 13 we have seen the best version of the Bucs, who have won seven straight (four regular season and three playoff). In large part this is due to their offense finally showing how dangerous they can be, in their past seven games they have scored over 30 points in all but one game and even then, they scored 26 points. Like Kansas City, their wins may not have been the most dominant, but they are wins and that is all that matters.
We can say all we want about the offense and how good they are (because they are) but their last game against the Packers showed how good overall this team truly is. Tom Brady went 20-36 with three touchdowns, not terrible, but he also had three interceptions which is not good at all. Most would assume that if your QB had that type of performance against the Packers then they most likely would lose, but obviously if they lost, they would not be in the Super Bowl. The defense showed up big time exactly when it mattered, and they held the Packers down and forced two turnovers to eventually win the game by a score of 31-26.
Even when the offense is not at its best, they are able to overcome that and win games, that is the mark of a true champion and that is what they are. Based off their last game against the Chiefs though, the Bucs should be at their best, or at least close to it. This is a team built around the pass who can run it to beat you although they prefer the pass and that is what they did. They went for 342 passing yards and 75 rushing yards in the first meeting, but the downfall in the end was that Brady threw two interceptions that they were not able to overcome as they lost the game 27-24. This game we could see a similar offensive performance in the pass, but the run has to be more prevalent. The Chiefs are susceptible to the run and the Bucs have the backs that can get some good yardage if they are allowed to. 75 yards isn’t great, but the backs only had 12 attempts due to them being down early. If you are not down that much early, then you have to keep the run involved because it will pay off as well as open holes. This is a team who can fight back with the pass, but you want to go against their weakness and that is by the run.
The passing game should be there as well and if they can work together with the run it might be too much for the Kansas City defense to handle which in turn will put the pressure on their defense. Gronkowski and Godwin each has great games in their last meeting, while Evans added two TDs, get all three of them involved early and keep the ball moving around, that is how to beat this defense. Then on the offensive line they need to keep a clean pocket for Brady like they did in their first game. Brady is not mobile like once was (if he ever was) so you need to allow Brady time for the deep balls like last week. Brady is throwing as good as he ever has but those are with clean pockets, allow pressure and your job becomes much tougher, stay clean and watch the GOAT work.
Then on the defensive side the biggest thing will be get pressure on Mahomes. The Chiefs offensive line is not at full strength, take advantage of that. Not only get through the line but keep Mahomes contained so he cannot roll out and make some of those magical plays. Like Brady, he can change the game plan at will when he wants to which means he can switch to short throws, if that is the case so be it. Do not allow the deep throws to beat you and the only way to do that is by forcing pressure on the pocket and making him make plays. Even with getting pressure he is bound to make you look foolish at least once, as long as they are not 50-yd TD bombs or big plays then it will not be a concern. If you can’t get pressure then it could be a long game but get pressure and you can get what has carried you defensively on this playoff run, turnovers.
The offense may have had three turnovers last week, but the defense forced two turnovers and when it came time to make a stop they came through. Stopping the Chiefs offense is not an easy task, but you have to be able to slow them down and make key stops. Force one or two turnovers and make one or two key stops like last game and your chance to win is good, but the offense has to play much better than they did against the Packers by protecting the ball if they want to knock off the reigning Super Bowl champions.
Prediction: A matchup between these two teams should be a purely offensive battle and could bring us one of the highest scoring Super Bowls in recent memory. Don’t be surprised if we see that, but also don’t be shocked if we see a game similar to their last meeting where only 51 points were scored. “Only” 51 points, but with these two high powered offenses that is really not that much. In the end this game is going to come down to which defense will be able to make that key stop late in the game against these great QBs. Brady has been doing this his whole career and no one should be surprised by what he can do, but since Mahomes has been in the league there really hasn’t been anyone who is better than him in late game situations.
It is the young GOAT vs. the GOAT and one of these QBs is going to add something else to their legacy, which of them will make the era defining play that could lead to the first SB win since 2002 or potentially start a dynasty against the QB who was part of the last one. Over his career Brady has been a part of some great plays that has won big games such as this, but he has also witnessed some of the best plays in NFL history which have gone against his teams to lose the game. Although it is never a good idea to bet against Brady, I think he will be on the latter end of that and the Chiefs will walk away as back-to-back champions.
Score: Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 26