As the Baseball season dwindles down and Football season right around the corner we come to a great time in American sports. The start of one season and the end of another makes it a great time for fans all across the nation. As of right now the push to make the MLB playoffs is still wide open for virtually every team with less than a month to go in the season.
Out of 30 teams only three teams are mathematically eliminated from making the playoffs. There are more teams who basically are out of the race, but still have a chance to make it like the Miami Marlins, who sit at 48-88. Obviously, they would need an abundance of help to reach the postseason, but they are not eliminated, yet.
In the coming days more and more teams will be eliminated from contention, but we are witnessing one of the tightest playoffs pushes in recent memory. In the American League there are four teams within six games of the final Wild Card spot. With only one division still in a race (Central), barring a monumental collapse the AL will have the largest competition for the Wild Card slots.
The National League is a completely different story. Only one division is realistically over already, that is the West with the Dodgers owning an 18.0 game lead over its second-place team. The East has one team only 6.5 games behind and the Central has two teams within 7.0 games of overtaking the division. The division races are close, but the Wild Card race has seven teams, under 10 games out, fighting for the two Wild Card slots.
Baseball, like any other sport is a game of streaks, and luck. The best teams do not always make it, instead the teams that are hot when it matters and has the balls bounce the right way usually get to the postseason.
Now, we will be seeing who has the best chances to make the playoffs out of every contending team.
American League
First, we are going to start out with the Division winners. In the East the Rays and Red Sox sit 9.0 and 15.0 games back from the leading Yankees. It’s pretty safe to say that the 90-win Yankees will be making the playoffs, most likely as the Division winner, but a chance of a Wild Card Slot. They have dealt with injuries better than any team in the MLB so far this season, many of their top players have gone down, but they are still atop the division with no sign of slowing down.
Four players: Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Dellin Betances, and Edwin Encarnacion look like they will return to full health later this month to make the Yankees one of the most dangerous teams heading into the postseason.
Now we go to the Central where there is still a division at stake. We have the Twins, the Division leader, and we have the Indians, sitting just 5.5 games out.
First the Twins, who have already broken a record for most homeruns in a season. If they can make it through this 12-game gauntlet where they face the Indians six times, the Red Sox three times, and the Nationals three times they should be fine. Half of these are home and half are on the road. This will truly show if the Twins are a postseason team this season. Their hitting has been great, like all season, since the all-star break, but the pitching has to shape up for them to run the Division.
The Indians also have 12 games against teams fighting for playoff spots, but they have a more spread out schedule, giving them time to take the lead before the last two weeks. Pitching was an issue before the all-star break, but thanks to Mike Clevinger they are still in it, pitching his way into the Cy Young competition. An injury to Jose Ramirez (hand) really hurts them as they make their final push over the next month. They hope Corey Kluber can come back in time to help them with this.
The Twins don’t have as many big-name injuries to battle through as we close out, making them the safer pick to win the Central Division.
In the West, the Astros have a 10.5 game lead over the Athletics, making the road to the postseason smooth for them. Out of every American League team they have the best shot of winning the division. They have time to deal with injuries until the postseason starts, which helps their chances in the postseason. They also have one of the easiest remaining schedules, almost assuring that they win the West division.
The Wild Card will be different though with the Rays and Indians currently holding the spots, but the Athletics (1.0) and the Red Sox (5.5) are tight on the trail for the postseason. All four of these teams sit in the top-10 in both pitching and hitting since the all-star break.
The Athletics have the easiest schedule to finish out, with only four of their next 26 game against a team with a plus .500 record. They are also not facing a big injury bug right now, expect the Athletics to grab one of the two Wild Card spots.
The Red Sox face the biggest uphill battle with ace Chris Sale being place on the 60-day IL (elbow). They also may have the toughest schedule of any AL team attempting to make the playoffs, with 13 of the next 25 games against plus .500 teams. Sale’s injury definitely hurts the Sox’s chances to make the postseason, eight games against the top two teams in the AL East doesn’t help either. The Red Sox still have a chance, but the chance does not look too good, therefore the Sox will not reach the postseason, making them the 10th team since 2000 who won the World Series who did not reach the postseason the next year.
The Indians face injury issues heading into the last month which will make it tough for them to make a final push. The Indians schedule does not do them any favors either, still fighting for the Division, this seems like the only way that they will make it back to the postseason because of the in-division games they will play. The Wild Card is still in play, but the Division is more likely so you can eliminate the Indians from the Wild Card spot.
Finally, we have the Rays who look to have pitchers Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow back to full health. Their schedule isn’t easy, but the next 12 games are all against sub .500 teams which means they could pull away before they reach the tough part of the September schedule. This is exactly what they should do, making it back to the postseason for the first time since 2013.
NL
In the East the Braves sit 6.5 games above the Nationals and 12.5 over the Phillies. This division will be won this month, with a plethora of in-division games between these teams. The Braves face the Nationals and Phillies a combined 14 times in the last month, making it a division gauntlet. This may be in their favor though as their other games are against non-playoff teams. They also do not have many big-name injuries and Nick Markakis and Ender Inciarte should be back soon to help the Braves complete the division win.
The Nationals not only have tough in-division games but their out of division games aren’t any easier. Only five of their next 26 games are against teams with a sub .500 record, making this the toughest schedule for any team fighting for a playoff spot. Max Scherzer is back, but it may be too little too late because there is only so much he can do. The division seems out of reach unless they dominate this stretch, so they will have to grab a Wild Card spot to make the playoffs.
Now we move to the Central where three teams are within 7.0 games of each other and no team has reached 80 wins yet. The Cardinals have the division lead and have 13 games against plus .500 teams, with 10 of them coming against the Cubs or Brewers. The biggest injury they have to deal with is Jordan Hicks, but he has been out since July 11th, so they have now played enough without him to not necessarily need him. Holding a 3.0 game lead over the Cubs, they meet for seven games, including the last three of the season, where I expect the division to be settled.
The Cubs are about to go on a four-game stretch against the Brewers who are right on their heels and it is in Milwaukee which makes it tougher. They have minor injuries right now, including Wilson Contreras and Javier Baez who they will need down the stretch. If they can split that series, then there is a safe bet the division will be settled during the last weekend. Other than those games they have a favorable schedule which should benefit them on this push.
The Brewers have the most favorable schedule out of all these teams, if they can win the series against the Cubs and the Cardinals, they are set up great to win the division. However, they are bit by the injury bug making every game a must-win for them now. Christian Yelich has to prove why he could be back-to-back MVPs by leading them to the playoffs.
As of right now Cardinals have the best shot to win the division due to lack of injuries. However, don’t be surprised if it is all settled during the last series between the Cubs and Cardinals in St. Louis.
In the West the Dodgers are all but set up for a division win and a postseason run barring a major collapse, considering they have an 18.0 game lead over the Diamondbacks.
The NL Wild Card is a roller coaster right now with seven teams vying for the final two spots right now. The Nationals and Cubs currently hold the spots, but anything could happen over the final month.
The San Francisco Giants are likely out of it, but not yet. If they keep playing like this, 3-7 in their last 10 games, they will not. These next six games will decide that, they are in St. Louis for three then travel to face the Dodgers for three. If they can win both these series there is hope, but a playoff run is not likely at this point.
The Mets are in a similar position, in terms of being hot, only 3-7 in their last 10 games, they have to turn it around quickly. Their next nine games are all against teams fighting for a playoff spot, then they have the Dodgers who are already in. If the Mets can play plus .500 ball, more like 9-4, over the next 13 games they have a chance. Right now, they sit 4.0 games back of the second wild card spot and that number will slowly fade away if they do not get hot soon.
The Brewers are also 4.0 games back, but they will have to overcome injuries to make a push. Just like for the division, Yelich will have to carry the load for the Brew Crew to nab a Wild Card spot in the wild NL.
The Diamondbacks are one of the hottest teams over the last 10 games, 7-3, and have a favorable schedule moving on. Only 3.5 games out, they play seven games against teams going for a playoff spot. The D-Backs have to play well without David Peralta, but this is a team that could be dangerous over the last month and can be right in the final push for a playoff spot. They have the best chance to make the postseason of any team not currently in.
The Philadelphia Phillies will be considered a disappointment if they do not make the post season this season. With huge off-season additions they should have easily grabbed a spot. If they want to make, they have to go through a tough road. Only six of their games are against teams who are already out of it, otherwise everyone they face is still fighting. Injuries are a problem, especially on the pitching staff which will make it tough for the Phillies to make a run to the postseason.
The Cubs currently hold the second Wild Card spot and should be on pace to make the postseason, whether it be by Wild Card or Division. They have some tough games in-division, but they are set up nicely other than that. Expect the Cubs to make the postseason again because of the strong play of P José Quintana and OF Nicholas Castellanos.
Finally, we have the Nationals who have the first Wild Card spot by 3.5 games. The hottest team in baseball has the toughest road to make the playoffs. Scherzer is back and Anthony Rendon is on fire right now. If they hope to make the playoffs, they will have to fight through the tough schedule ahead. They sit in a good position to make the playoffs, but it could easily fade away.
Expect the two Wild Card teams from the NL to be the Cubs from the Central and the Diamondbacks from the West.
No matter what happens the rest of this MLB season, it has been a great year with tight races all-around and will continue to be a great year with a great race to the postseason ahead of us.