Last year’s matchup in the NFC Championship between these two teams really wasn’t a close contest as the 49ers dominated the second quarter in a 37-20 rout of the Packers on their way to the Super Bowl. This year we were supposed to see a much better game between these two teams and while that still may happen, injuries have bitten these two team to the point where neither are at full strength.
While both teams are certainly struggling with injuries, one team has been bit worse by the bug and that would be the 49ers. Entering the season, it was Super Bowl or bust for the 49ers and then in week 2 two of their biggest defensive line players suffered season ending injuries. This was just the beginning of the serious injury train that the 49ers would continue to face during the season.
The most recent setbacks for the 49ers are losing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for a minimum of six weeks as well as tight end George Kittle who could be out for the remainder of the season.
That news does not bode well for the 49ers as they enter the game at 4-4, but at the same time the Packers are not at full health either so it may not be as bad as it could for San Francisco.
The Packers may not be missing the high-profile names of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams compared to the counterparts of Garoppolo and Kittle, but they are missing some important pieces on the offensive end. Nothing is set in stone yet, but it is possible that the Packers will be without star running back for their third straight game and if that is the case it will be a huge blow against a team still with a very good defense.
So, with all the injuries that these two teams have been facing, it may not be a game reminiscent of last season, which could be good or bad depending on what team you support, but it should still be a good game, nonetheless.
Both teams are coming off of losses and both need a victory this week to avenge for the loss and stay primed to make the playoffs. The real question is though, even with all of the injuries will this game be a repeat of the NFC Championship game from last season?
(This all is assuming that the game is played and not cancelled due to COVID precautions).
Thursday Night Football: Green Bay at San Francisco
Kickoff: Thursday, Nov. 5 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network/Fox
Spread: Green Bay -5.5
Packers
Green Bay started this season out great this season winning their first four games and scoring 30 or more points in each game. Since then they have been 1-2 with only one game scoring 30 or more. This is a team where their offense is going to carry them to a victory or lose them the game. It might not be fair to blame the offense for when they lose a game, but that is where they are at right now, they know the defense is bad, so the offense needs to make up for it.
When we talk about the Packers offense then we need to start with QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been at the helm of the offense that ranks ninth in the pass and run game and third in points per game at 31.3. So far this season, Rodgers is easily a candidate for MVP as he has 1,948 yards, 20 touchdowns, and two interceptions in seven games. The numbers, outside of yards, are honestly pretty similar to his 2011 numbers the season he won the MVP. This is not saying that he will win MVP, but if he continues to play at this level then it is certainly possible.
There is no doubt that Rodgers has been great this season, but we cannot go without talking about his weapons (or lack thereof, depending on how you look at it). Rodgers has gone a good amount of his career with not having the weapons that some other greats have, yet he has managed to work around it and put up very good stats. You could say this season is similar, but he has a clear number one in Davante Adams, a great RB in Aaron Jones, and two adequate receivers in Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Robert Tonyan. They have all helped equally as Rodgers spreads the ball out, but the key receiver is Adams, without him the pass game gets significantly worse.
While the pass game has been very good, the run game has also done some great things when they are healthy, the problem is that Jones has had injury luck this season. When Jones is in the lineup, he is great at running and catching out of the backfield, something they need going against the 49ers defense.
Even with all the injuries this season the 49ers still have a top 10 defense ranking 10th in points allowed, fourth in the pass and 10th in the run. This means that they could stop the Packers offense, but it will not be easy. Rodgers is coming off a loss and last time that happened this season he went on and threw for four touchdowns the next game. Now the 49ers defense is not nearly as bad as Houston’s, they have a legitimate shot to slow down Rodgers, but if Jones plays then this offense could become too much for the 49ers to handle.
No matter how good or bad the 49ers defense plays though, the game will be decided between the 9ers offense and Packers defense.
49ers
The 49ers defense is what is keeping this team going this season because even before the Garoppolo injury (2nd) they had their problems. Three times this season have the 49ers scored more than 30 points and only twice have the scored 20 or less points. While the offense has had its issues, they are not a bad offense at all. They rank 15th in points per game at 26.0 as well as the 17th ranked pass offense and the 10th ranked rush offense.
The offense has been up and down this season, but most of that offense revolved around two players, one of whom might not play this game in George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. Samuel did not play last week, and it may have turned out to be what gave the Seahawks the advantage in the end. If Samuel does not play again this week then it could smell disaster for the 9ers offense with Nick Mullens even against this poor defense.
In four total games this season, Mullens hasn’t been terrible but he has not been good either. Luckily, they go against a defense that is awful compared to their offense. That doesn’t mean that the defense is awful, but when your offense is one of the best then things get tougher when comparing the defense.
The Packers are pretty good at limiting teams to yards, ranking 11th in yards, but they give up points as they rank 20th in the league. They rank 12th in the pass and 15th in the run although they allowed 28th in rushing TDs allowed. Therefore, that is the key to the game for the offense, run the ball.
The 9ers have a balanced rushing attack that involves Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon, and Jeff Wilson and they all make it a good combination to mess with defenses. These backs are going to need to be on point all game long so they can limit the amount of times Mullens will need to throw the ball. The longer the 9ers can keep the ball out of Mullens hands means the better their chance to win.
Not that Mullens is awful, but the Packers have some good pass rushers and with their line he could be seeing the ground a lot. As long as the game remains close enough to run then the 9ers have a great shot at winning.
Final Analysis
If this game is reminiscent of the NFC Championship from last season, I would be shocked. The 9ers are at a clear disadvantage on the offensive side so they will need to contain the Packers offense if they have any chance. The Packers have showed weaknesses on the offensive side at points this season so it is entirely possible that the 9ers can stop them, but if Green Bay has its full array of weapons then I would take the Packers offense. However, if the 9ers contain them enough then their offense can take advantage of weaknesses in the Packers D. I find it hard to believe that the Packers offense will not be on point and with the injuries on the offensive side for San Francisco, I have to go with Green Bay.
Score: Packers 28, 49ers 22