This Thursday night we are getting a matchup between two familiar faces in new destinations as we see a rematch of quarterbacks from Super Bowl LII (52), Tom Brady with the Buccaneers and Nick Foles with the Bears. Foles got the best of Brady in that game as the Eagles defeated the Patriots, will history repeat itself with Foles getting the upper hand or will the tides change with Brady getting the best of Foles?
These two quarterbacks were brought into their respective teams this offseason to fill two different roles; Brady to lead the Bucs to a Super Bowl, and Foles to backup Mitchell Trubisky and take over if he just was not cutting it. Well, Foles has taken over and now they have the same role, lead their teams to the playoffs and make it to the Super Bowl.
Both of these teams enter the Thursday night matchup with three victories, however, the path each team took to get their three victories could not be more different.
The Buccaneers started the season off losing their first game of the season to the Saints and since then they have won three straight, in large part to the prowess of their defense. This does not mean Brady is playing bad, in fact, Brady ranks tied for fourth in the league in passing touchdowns with 11 and with his latest victory he became the NFL’s all-time regular-season victories leader (222) regardless of position.
Brady is looking to add yet another win to his resume and add to his record.
The Bears on the other hand have not won a game by more than four points on the season, two of which came in the fashion of 4th-quarter comebacks. They are currently coming of a 19-11 loss to Indianapolis and while the defense was able to hold the Colts under 20 points, the offense never really found its groove. Foles is looking to change that this week, if not it is possible that we see another change at quarterback, so this is the time that Foles has to show he is the guy in Chicago.
Tampa Bay at Chicago
Kickoff: Thursday, Oct. 8 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: Fox/NFL Network
Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
Buccaneers: (3-1)
The “TOMpa” Bay era did not get off to the greatest start after a week one loss to the New Orleans Saints and even though Brady has not been the former MVP the team is playing well enough match up with any team in the league. It may not have been a pretty game against the Chargers, but they came away with a victory which is the important part. The key difference between the two teams is the Bears offense is not as high power as the Chargers offense is.
Let’s start with Brady though and even though he does have 11 TD passes on the season, he also has four interceptions which is not typical Brady. Part of the reason Brady has been up and down this season is because he is one, learning a new system, and two, actually has weapons to utilize in the passing game. Well, now it’s five weeks into the season so the system should not be a surprise anymore, what could be a downfall for the offense this week is the injuries on the offense.
This was a rough week for injuries on the Bucs offense and they will be without Chris Godwin and Justin Watson, so they will be without one of their top receivers. That doesn’t seem too bad, but at a second glance they could also be without Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski, and Leonard Fournette; who in the world is Brady going to throw to. Now it is unlikely that all of these players will be out, but in case they are then the players on the offensive end are Ronald Jones II and Ke’Shawn Vaughn.
Ronald Jones has been good on the ground this season and he will have the chance to be the main man once again if Fournette is out this game. Currently the Bears sit in 16th place in the rush defense so Jones could be what keeps this offense rolling all game long. While the offense can be good, what will really lead the team to a victory is the defense.
The Buccaneers defense ranks fourth in the league for total yards allowed and eighth in the league for total points allowed. While they are decent in the pass game by allowing less than 250 YPG, where they thrive is in the rush defense where they rank as the second-best defense at around 64 YPG allowed. Not only are they good at limiting yards and points, but they are also ranked highly when it comes to creating turnovers. On the season they have 10 forced turnovers and if they can create short fields for Brady then it could do wonders against the Bears D.
Bears: (3-1)
When Trubisky started struggling in their week three game against the Falcons, Foles entered the games in hopes he could turn the offense around and he did, for one quarter. They were able to make the comeback against Atlanta, then they played the Colts and the offense went stagnant once again only mustering up 269 yards and 11 points. To be fair, this was against the best defense in the league, but they are still going to need more out of a former Super Bowl MVP.
While the Colts defense ranks atop the league, the Buccaneers are not too far behind. They do have a weak spot in the pass game, but the run defense is ridiculously good, meaning that it could be a tough game for Montgomery, and it will come down to what can Foles do with the ball.
The Bears run game has been average this season, nothing special, but if they want a chance to defeat the Buccaneers then they are going to need it to show up. Few teams in the league can get away with having a one-dimensional offense and the Bears are not one of them, getting Montgomery going early and often could be the only way to stay in this game offensively. It will be tough considering that they managed 28 rush yards last week and the Bucs rush defense isn’t too much worse.
If that does not happen then Foles will be the man and while he has looked better than Trubisky that is not saying much. Foles has the same completion % with two less touchdowns and 1 less interception in one less game. This shows that while he may be a little better but not by much. The passing game is honestly just lucky that they have Allen Robinson, otherwise this offense could be one of the worst in the league. Robinson has a third of the Bears receiving YDS and they still rank as the 21st best pass offense in the league.
It is clear that this is not a team built around offense, the defense is the key for this team and if they want to get a victory this week then they will need them to be great against Brady. The Bears have similar defensive stats to the Bucs as they rank eighth in total yards allowed per games and seventh in points per game allowed. With the way that the Bucs offense is currently set up with all of the injuries then the Bears can easily be in this game, but they will need to slow down Ronald Jones. If they can slow down the run game, then the offense will be forced to pass and with the defensive rush the Bears have they could force unnecessary turnovers from Brady.
Final Analysis
Depending on what happens with the injury situation, this could be a very sloppy offensive game. While it may not look great for the Buccaneers based off the injury report, it would be shocking if they are down to no weapons. Mike Evans and Scott Miller will most likely play, and they will give Brady all he needs in terms of weapons to go along with Jones. If they end up not playing then this game will be completely different, but I am going under the assumption they play and if they do then they will score points.
If the Bucs score points then the Bears need to match it and with how they struggled against a great D last week, things don’t look better entering this week. Obviously, points win games, but the key to this game is which defense will create more turnovers. Short fields are what these teams work on and the team that gets more short fields will win this game.
The Buccaneers will win this game and Brady will remain undefeated against the Bears, increasing his record to 6-0.
Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Bears 15