Before the season started the Dolphins and the Jaguars looked like the two teams that needed the largest rebuild in the AFC. While that may still be true, these two teams have not been playing like teams in need of the biggest rebuild. At this point of the season these teams are a combined 1-3, but if a couple plays worked out differently then they could have a combined 3-1 record.
Miami is coming off a loss to Buffalo 31-28, and after taking two losses they are looking for their first win of the season come Thursday. Fans may have to wait until they get to see Tua Tagovailoa take charge of this offense under center as Ryan Fitzpatrick is currently holding down the fort and after a rough week one, made up for it in the tough loss to Buffalo.
The Jaguars on the other hand may be the early shock of the season. After the fire sale the Jaguars had in the offseason it seemed legitimately possible that this team would go 0-16, well, after two weeks they are 1-1 and not looking like they are tanking for Trevor. Quarterback Gardner Minshew is leading that charge and ensuring he has a starting job next year so expect the Jaguars offense to go all out all season long.
While both of these teams are playing well right now, that was when they had competition to play up to. Both of these teams are around the same level talent wise so while it could easily be a great Thursday night matchup—potentially one of the best all year—but don’t be surprised if this game is sloppy albeit competitive.
Both teams still have a lot to prove this season if they do not want to be the laughingstock of the league (rightfully or not) and there is no better place to prove that then in primetime with the entire league focusing on you. Not only to both of these teams have something to prove, but they are fighting for supremacy of the AFC teams in Florida.
Last week’s Thursday night game saw the Battle of Ohio as the Bengals and Browns went head to head and the north came out on top (Cleveland). Will this week be any different with the south reigning supreme (Dolphins), or will the north come out on top once again (Jaguars) in the Battle of Florida? Maybe more importantly though, this is the match to see which facial hair style reigns supreme, Mustache (Minshew) or Beard (Fitzpatrick)?
Miami at Jacksonville
Kickoff: Thursday, Sept. 24 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
Spread: Jacksonville -3
Dolphins: (0-2)
Miami’s offense struggled week one as they faced a Bill Belichick defense in the Patriots and were only able to muster up 11 points with 269 total yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick was overmatched by great coverage all game long and ended up with three interceptions and zero touchdowns. Last week we saw a whole new offense as the Dolphins were almost able to upset the Bills in a 31-28 loss. Fitzpatrick threw for 328 yards and two touchdowns while the offense in total had 410 yards and three touchdowns.
The key differences within the two weeks was that the Dolphins played to the other team’s strengths in the game, meaning against the Patriots the defense stepped up against their great defense and against the Bills it became an offensive shootout between Allen and Fitzpatrick. If that is any indication as to how this game will go, then we will see another high scoring affair as the Jaguars bread and butter is their offensive ability.
If that is the case then two questions arise, which Ryan Fitzpatrick will we see leading the offense and will the Dolphins defense be able to step up and give their team a chance to win?
The Dolphins offense looked completely puzzled by the Patriots defense in week one and that is not completely out of the ordinary considering they still have the ability to be a top-10 defense this season. Currently the Patriots defense rank 14th (PTS/G), 11th in (YDS/G pass) but that number is going to be a little skewed after facing a top-five offense in the Seahawks. While Fitzpatrick struggled against the Patriots, he was able to do extremely well against another potential top-10 defense in the Bills. The Bills have struggled defensively so far this season yet rank 13th (PTS/G) and 20th in (YDS/G pass). So why was Fitzpatrick struggling against the Patriots but great against the Bills?
Ryan Fitzpatrick has gained a reputation in his NFL career as an inconsistent starter, he could be other worldly in some games and a flip would switch and he immediately turned into a low tier starting quarterback. It’s actually pretty amazing how inconsistent he is, certain weeks any team would wish he was their QB and others, fans would be looking for new teams after the performance. The thing is that is inconsistency is not always dependent on the level of defense he is playing and that’s why he is so hard to judge. Looking solely at the Jaguars pass defense which ranks 30th in the league, Fitzpatrick should do just fine, but it is impossible to tell. If Fitz does not show up, then the defense that has struggled so far needs to.
While the Dolphins rank better than the Jaguars, they rank worse in almost every other category. This needs to change going into facing Minshew and it will not be any easier without Byron Jones who is doubtful for the game. Minshew should not be afraid to take deep shots and outside of that James Robinson will have to be focused on heavily. Robinson broke the 100-yard threshold for the first time in his career Sunday and is looking to do so once again against a team that allows an average of 164 rush yards per game. The Dolphins will not have an easy task against a team not afraid to take chances, but if they can force turnovers on those chances, they may just stand a chance.
Jaguars: (1-1)
Gardner Minshew added another solid start to his 2020 resume and almost led this team to a 2-0 start after many thought that there would be a clear 0-2 start. Minshew also made history in their most recent game, becoming the first Jaguars quarterback with at least three touchdown passes in three straight games, Minshew is only looking to add to that record but more importantly lead the team to a win over the Dolphins. Minshew has looked impressive so far, this young season, but if there is one concern it is that turnovers could be an issue. Now Minshew only has two interceptions on the season, which is not bad, but both of them proved costly in the team’s loss to Tennessee. Then we have to look at the offensive line that forces Minshew to get rid of the ball quickly and that could lead to even more costly turnovers.
As previously stated, there is nothing to lose in Jacksonville so the offense will take its fair amount of shots down the field, the Dolphins seem like the perfect team to do this against too. This is a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in almost every category so it should give Minshew the opportunity to make some great plays. Not only should Minshew make the plays but he should have time behind this offensive line as the pass rush is not great. Hopefully DJ Chark is fully ready to go and he would just give another weapon for Minshew, however, if the passing game is not working for some reason James Robinson should be heavily involved against a defense that struggles against the run. This offense should have no issues going up against Miami’s defense, the problem will be Jacksonville’s defense going up against Miami’s offense.
Miami has a reliant pass first offense; in two games they have run a total of 49 times with eight of those attempts coming from the quarterback. That virtually eliminates the run offense since they pass almost double the amount they run. While they may not run often, they have been somewhat effective when they do, Myles Gaskin is averaging 5.4 yards per attempt and Matt Breida has averaged 4.9 yards per attempt. Jordan Howard has been virtually invisible so far this season, but don’t count him out before game time, if Minshew doesn’t get an early lead then the run game of Miami can be there for a long time and has a chance to break off some big plays. While Miami could do that, Jacksonville has been good against the run this season so it may not be that simple.
However, against this defense Minshew should be able to get out to an early lead and that means that the Dolphins will be passing. Passing has been the weak spot of this defense and has the chance to be once again. Fitzpatrick was on fire last week and against a defense that has allowed 294 yards per game and five touchdowns he has the chance to be once again.
This offense has been able to somewhat overcome sloppy defensive play, but this is a week that they need to make a statement about how they are here to compete this season. There are a couple of key injuries that could be the difference in this week’s game but if the defense can slow down Fitzpatrick then Minshew should lead them to another victory. This is a week that the young players in the Jags secondary outside of C.J. Henderson need to step up and make a statement, now if they do it is a different story.
Final Analysis
This should be an offensive battle for two teams without great defenses and that is exactly what it will be. The Jaguars have been in both games this season and they could have easily been 2-0 if not for their defensive effort. That being said, these two teams are very far from being Super Bowl contenders, but no one ever thought that they would be. Minshew and Fitzpatrick should battle back and forth all game long and this game will come down to which defense can make one or two key stops.
These are not great defenses and that will be what decides the game, but until that deciding series we should be able to see a great albeit sloppy, offensive performance. This game could easily come down to the last possession and at the end of the day I feel as though Minshew will make a costly mistake that allows Miami to take advantage and win the Battle of Florida.
Prediction: Dolphins 28, Jaguars 27