The battle for first place in the AFC South finds its way to Nashville this Thursday as the Titans (6-2) host the Colts (5-3) in the start of the second half of the season for both squads. With seven teams making the playoffs from each conference this season it is entirely possible that both of these teams make the playoffs no matter who wins and who loses, but at the same time it is possible that only the division winner will end up making the postseason. Whoever wins this game will therefore have a huge advantage when it comes to the final season standings.
Indianapolis is coming off a loss to Baltimore last week in a game where their defense was great, but the offense just could not muster up anything. Tennessee is coming off a huge victory that gave them the division lead as the defeated the Bears last week, but now each team comes off this short week preparing for their “biggest” games of the season up to this point.
For Indianapolis, the Ravens were just the first part of their deadly stretch in the schedule. Over the next seven weeks they play: at Tennessee, Green Bay, Tennessee, at Houston, at Las Vegas, Houston, and at Pittsburgh. This is no sense of the imagination will be an easy ride, if they could end up going .500, which means winning four games since they lost last week, then they still have a good shot at making the postseason. Indianapolis cannot focus on the future though; they have to take it one game at a time and it all starts with Tennessee.
Similarly, the Titans have a rough part of their schedule ahead of them, but for them it consists of four weeks and not seven. These games include Indianapolis, at Baltimore, at Indianapolis, and Cleveland. Like Indy, if the Titans could go .500 over these next four games including at least one win against Indy then the postseason should be made easily while the division could be all but locked up.
In a divisional matchup, especially one that could help decide the division winner, both teams are going to give it everything they have in what should be less of a game and more of a war. Philip Rivers vs. Ryan Tannehill was never a matchup that was expected as an in-division matchup but that is where we are. This game will be less about the battle of the quarterbacks though, it will more likely be a battle of defense (Indianapolis) vs the running back (Tennessee).
Thursday Night Football: Indianapolis at Tennessee
Kickoff: Monday, Nov. 12 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: Fox/NFL Network
Spread: Titans -2
How the Colts will win
As we saw last week in the Colts Ravens game, the defense is what carries this team to its victories. This isn’t to say that the offense is bad (it’s not great), but they have yet to find their footing against the better teams in the league. In games that Darius Leonard has played this season the Colts have not allowed more than 27 points and that was in a week one loss against the Jaguars. In the two games without Leonard the Colts have allowed 27 or more points both times. We all know what type of player that Leonard is, but his talent and leadership on the field cannot be understated.
The Colts have a great defense and so far this season that has been the Titans weakness. In games against current top 10 defenses the Titans have failed to get to that 27-point threshold in both games. This is a good sign for the Colts defense that ranks third in the league in points per game, third in pass defense and third in run defense. While things look good for them going against the Titans offense, we cannot overlook the Titans secret weapon Derrick Henry. Henry is the type of back that only gets stronger throughout the game so there is a chance that he could wear this defense down, but this is not the type of run game that the Ravens have.
The Ravens (even with Ingram’s injury) have two strong running backs as well as Lamar Jackson who is a threat to run at any time. They pound you with different looks in the run game, the Titans plan is simple, feed Henry. Henry is averaging over 100 yards per game this season, but against the better run defenses like Pittsburgh, and Chicago as well as not so good run defenses in Buffalo and Jacksonville he was held to under 85 yards. Outside of Henry though there is not a huge threat; overall the Titans rank sixth in the run, but besides Henry only two players have 100 rush yards and one of them is the QB.
If the Colts can slow down Henry in the early game and get ahead thanks to the hopefully good play of Philip Rivers and the offense then that will force the Titans to throw the ball which has been the week point of their offense.
The key to that though is a locked in offense against a subpar defense. The Colts went against a top tier defense last week, but they did not do well, overall on the season they rank 15th in points per game, 14th in the pass and 22nd in the run. Now they go against the 16th ranked defense, 27th in the pass and 17th in the run. This is a game Rivers needs to do what he was brought there to do, lead the offense to being one of the best in the league.
If that, plus the defense slowing down Henry happens then there should be no reason why the Colts can’t go into Tennessee and pull off the upset.
How the Titans will win
This is a pretty simple answer, Derrick Henry. Henry is easily one of the top backs in the league currently and he can single handedly take over a game when he gets the opportunity to. The problem, now he is going up against a great run defense for the second straight week and the third time in the last four weeks. In two of those games he was held to 75 yards or less and the Titans as a whole were held to under 100 total rushing yards. That in lies the problem with the Tennessee offense, the run game opens up the pass and if the run game is not working then the pass most likely will not either.
Tennessee has played eight games this season and in only two of those games has the pass offense more than doubled the output of the run offense. This does not necessarily mean that they should double the output against the Colts defense, but if the run game is not working then they need the pass game working. A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith are all reliable receivers in the pass game and could easily help Tannehill even if the run game is working. This is not going to be an easy defense to do anything against though so the offense could struggle which will put even more pressure on the defense.
The Titans defense has not been great, but unlike the Colts offense they are not inconsistent. Sure, they’ve had their outlier games this season, but for the most part they play pretty consistent each and every week, the Colts on the other hand do not.
You never know what you’re getting with the Colts offense, it could be great, good, or horrible, in a divisional matchup a good offensive game will be needed. The Titans struggle mightily against the pass so Rivers could easily take advantage of that That doesn’t mean that he will, but he could. The Titans give up yards on the defensive end, but points do not come as easily, if the Titans can play a similar game and rely on Henry and the offense then they could get a huge divisional win which will put them two games up.
Final Analysis
This game has the potential to be one of the best Thursday night matchups that we see all season long, two divisional foes fighting for first place, how does it get any better. The biggest question in the game though will be what type of game will we see, an offensive shootout or a defensive battle? With these two teams I think a defensive shootout is more likely, but in a divisional game you never know what will happen. This game is a must win for both teams, but after coming off a rough loss to the Ravens I think the edge goes to Indianapolis and they tie things up in the division.
Score: Colts 22, Titans 19