We had a little bit of a break from Thursday Night Football with the last true Thursday Night game occurring two weeks ago on Thanksgiving. Sure, the game Tuesday with the Cowboys and Ravens were technically Thursday Night Football, but that was not the true Thursday Night feel, now we get that back. Not only will this be the first matchup on Thursday in two weeks, but it also could have ginormous implications on the playoff race while also being a rematch of the 2018 Super Bowl.
Well, it may be a repeat of that game but there are some differences like the Rams who now have an overpowering defense compared to their offense that they had that season and, oh yeah, the Patriots no longer have Tom Brady. We all know Tom Brady has left the Patriots at this point and if you don’t then where have you been, but what has happened due to the departure of Brady is that the Rams this season have/had the opportunity to play the Patriots and Brady in two separate games.
Part of the Rams schedule this season included the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who they faced in week 11 and the Rams ended up winning that game 27-24, so they already have the upper hand on Brady this season, now they have a chance to avenge their Super Bowl loss when they meet up with New England.
New England may be a completely different team than the least time they met, Newton is QB and some key players on the defense opted out before the season, but they are in the middle of a playoff push currently. New England is 6-6 on the season, winning four of the last five, and they need every win they can get to stay in the playoff race. So, what we have this game is one team (New England) looking to win in order to remain in the wild card picture and another (Rams) looking to stay in the win column to get a leg up in the division.
Expect this match to be a hard-hitting game that pits two of the better defenses in the league against each other and also expect the score to be a little higher than the 13-3 score of the last time these two met.
Thursday Night Football: Patriots at Rams
Kickoff: Thursday, Dec. 10 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: Fox/NFL Network
Spread: Rams -5.5
How the Patriots will win
If there was any doubt that Bill Belichick was only great due to having the greatest QB ever in Brady, then the past five weeks may have ended that debate. Okay, they started their win streak against the Jets, but then they beat the Ravens, lost to the Texans, defeated the Cardinals, and most recently decimated the Chargers in a 45-0 route. While the offense has been good in almost all of these games, the big reason they have won four out of five is because of their defense. Their defense has clutched up in two of their last three games and now they are in a position to potentially earn a wild card spot, but they still need help.
The defense could be what is the determining factor for this game as well, but after the beating they put on the Chargers last week it may be more up to that offense. 45 points is the most they have out up this season and their offense didn’t even play great, if they can do that again it will be tough to lose. The real reason that the game looked even worse than it was is because of the special teams play in which New England returned a punt for a touchdown and blocked a kick for a touchdown. That wasn’t even all the special team’s action but those were the plays that directly resulted in points, but their other play meant their offense did not have to march down the field to score.
Obviously, they hope their special teams can play like that again because their offense may not be able to march down the field on this great defense. The Rams defense this season ranks fifth in points allowed, first in the pass and third in the run while also ranking second in total yards allowed. New England’s offense on the other hand ranks 23rd in points, 30th in the pass, and third in the run while ranking 22nd in total yards. The offense could be in for some tough drives so they will need to rely on their defense and their special teams in order to create short fields for the offense.
Belichick always finds ways to get the most out of his teams, even if that takes a while throughout the season and that is where we are at right now. The offense has been getting better, but the defense and special teams are really picking up the slack. If they can force Goff and the offense with the pass rush into forced throws it will do wonders for them in the long run and if the special teams can play anything like they did last week then it could be a repeat of Super Bowl LIII.
How the Rams will win
In 2018 when the Rams ended up making the Super Bowl, they had one of the best offenses in league history, since then the offense has gone downhill, but the defense is as good this season as anybody. The defense is definitely good enough to slow down the Pats offense especially with big Aaron Donald holding down the middle of the line, but the bigger question is whether or not their offense can match with New England’s defense.
Los Angeles this season isn’t bad on the offensive end ranking third in total yards, sixth in the pass, and eighth in the run but they are only so-so in the most important aspect of the offensive game, scoring points (17th). When it comes to strictly marching down the field the Rams are as good as anybody, but they do struggle sometimes scoring points and that is partly on the offense and partly on the special teams. We can’t put all the blame on the kickers especially when they have chances to score TDs and they fail, but the kicking game is definitely an aspect in which they could be much better.
We already mentioned that New England has been playing great on special teams recently and if they can force the Rams offense to use the special teams then they already have the advantage. So far, this season the Rams have used three different kickers and all of them have had below a 75% conversion rate for a team percentage of 71.4. This means that when they have an opportunity to put the ball in the endzone they need to. Kicking is no doubt a tough job at any level, but if you cannot consistently put the ball through the goalposts then you need to put the ball in the endzone plain and simple. New England’s defense ranks seventh in points allowed, 12th in the pass, and 18th in the run, so if they can limit the Rams to field goal opportunities then they have the advantage.
That leads to the next point, allow your offense short fields which will increase the chance a touchdown will be scored. The Rams have a great defense at forcing pressure on the QB so if they can put the pressure on Newton and the passing game then there will be a better shot at forcing mistakes which will lead to turnovers. If you are the Pats offense, then you need to get up early and force New England to throw the ball. Newton has shown that he can still throw, but the pass game is the weak point of the offense so if they are forced to play from behind then the Rams should not lose.
Final Analysis
If the Rams win this game then they will overtake first place in the NFC West for the time being and if the Patriots win then they remain in the wild card race because seven losses most likely will not do it so, both teams clearly need these wins. For one of these teams (Rams) the defense will be important, but the offense will be what wins the games, get into the endzone and force the Pats to play from behind and your chances go up greatly. For the Pats it is the opposite, the offense is important, but the defense and special teams will win, keep the Rams out of the endzone and allow the best part of your team to take control and you can steal a victory. Don’t expect this game to be as low scoring as their Super Bowl matchup although it would not be a shock if they do play a low scoring game. With Belichick as coach anything can happen for them, but Los Angeles looks to have the advantages as long as the game doesn’t come down to special teams.
Score: Rams 23, Patriots 18