Week 14 in the NFL season ended with one of the best matchups, if not the best matchup of the season when we saw the Baltimore Ravens defeat the Cleveland Browns 47-42 after Lamar Jackson made his way out of the locker room with two minutes left in the fourth quarter to take the lead. This game may not have the two big-name teams this season as the Monday night game, but there is one thing in common this game has with the most recent, it is a divisional matchup.
Los Angeles is eliminated from playoff contention but that does not mean the season is over, they can still play spoiler plus they have a quarterback pushing for offensive rookie of the year. They are coming off of a 20-17 victory against the Falcons last week at home where Badgley drilled a 43-yard field goal as time expired to get the win. After that victory there are multiple ways to look at their remaining schedule from a fan’s perspective, lose out and get a better draft pick, win to play spoiler for the Raiders and potentially Chiefs for the one seed, or win just to have some momentum going into the offseason. From the team’s perspective they want to win to help save jobs or earn jobs come offseason time and if they can play spoiler to a divisional opponent on the way that will just be icing on the cake.
Then we have Las Vegas who is currently on the outside looking in for the AFC playoff picture at 7-6, so they need every single win they can get over their final three games. The Chargers will just be the first test of their tough final three games that also includes the Dolphins and the Broncos who are another divisional opponent. The Raiders have been in a downward spiral over the past four weeks, losing three of their last four with their only win coming two weeks ago against the Jets. That has put them in a bad position to make the playoffs, but now they are looking to fight back after their demoralizing loss to the Colts 44-27 with a victory against the Chargers at home.
The first time these teams met the Raiders were able to march into Los Angeles and walk away with a 31-26 victory, now they look to do the same at home and remain in the playoff race. Entering this game, the offenses will have control of this game and with the lack of defense we could see a game similar to the Ravens-Browns game, but at the end of the game it will come down to which defense provides a couple key stops. So, which will happen, will the Raiders stay in the playoff race or will the Chargers play spoilers?
Thursday Night Football: Chargers at Raiders
Kickoff: Thursday, Dec. 17 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: Fox/NFL Network
Spread: Raiders -3.5
How the Chargers will win
Los Angeles has had an issue this season this season and to make a simple issue sound complicated they struggle scoring points while giving up a great deal of points. Now let’s make that simple, they get outscored and that is why they lose. This team has a great deal of talent and in all honesty, they should probably be a playoff team, but there are a couple reasons why they are not. First, they have a rookie quarterback, second, they are missing their best defensive player due to injury, and finally, they have a bit of a kicking issue when looking at the consistency side. There are more issues than that on this team, but those are the most prevalent that took them from being a playoff team to being a team looking at a top-five draft pick.
Another large reason has been the run game that was supposed to be led by Austin Ekeler has been punished by injuries this season and has pushed the offense to becoming one dimensional. Getting rid of Melvin Gordon this offseason was a decision they felt okay with considering they had Ekeler and signed him to a four-year contract, no one could have foreseen the injury issues that he would be dealing with this season. Injuries are sometimes a random game, and this is what Ekeler has been dealing with, and that ended up putting him on IR for most of the season, but now he may be out again at least for tonight with a quad injury. So, the question becomes if we see him at all, what will he be able to provide and what will the run game be able to provide?
LA has the 16th ranked rush offense this season and even though that is middle of the road they can use the run effectively with their pass offense which ranks fourth in the league against a defense that ranks 30th in points allowed, 25th in the pass, and 25th in the run. The largest problem with LA this season has been matching their production marching down the field with getting points on the board. They rank eighth in yards this season, but 22nd in points, that brings up a bit of an issue, why can’t they get points on the board?
They have actually improved based off last season, but they rank 20th in the league with a 57.14% red-zone TD percentage. That is not necessarily terrible, but it’s not the best either. Another issue comes when they can’t get to the red zone and have to go for a field goal of over 40 yards, in that situation they are 9 for 16 in attempts, compared to 10 for 10 within 40 yards. Going against the Raiders this should not be as much of an issue, but this is why we have seen struggles this season scoring points.
Now move to the defensive side and they have a similar issue, they are good at limiting yards, ninth in the league, but they allow the 26th most points in the league. This provides a bit of an issue against the Raiders who have a good offense and will be fighting as hard as possible to remain in the playoff race. Only two times this season have the Chargers held opponents to under 20 points and only four times under 25, the first meeting was not one of those times. Part of why they have not and did not is because outside of Joey Bosa they really don’t have a pass rush. Bosa did not play the last time these teams met, so if he can force a pass rush along with the other rushers, they can create a tough situation for Carr. Vegas’s line is good and does not allow a ton of pressure, so if LA can force some then their defense can get off the field quicker and allow their offense to do the work.
How the Raiders will win
As stated earlier the Raiders need every single win, they can get over the next three weeks especially when they play the Dolphins who are themselves fighting for a playoff spot. If they lose this week their chances get much tougher, so this is more than just another divisional matchup for them. They will be without Henry Ruggs for this game as he was placed on the reserve/COVID list, but they will have their other playmakers in Waller, Jacobs, Renfrow, and probably Agholor. They will need to do everything they can on the offensive end because their defense has not been good. Their defense ranks as one of the worst in the league this season and the only saving grace for them has been their offense which doesn’t even rank top-10.
In only three games this season have they held opponents to under 25 points and in two of those they held them to under 15 points, but that has not happened since week 10 against Denver, LA has a much better offensive attack than Denver. LA could have a balanced attack depending on what is happening with their running backs, but if they are hurt on that end then they will be focusing on the passing side like they had for much of the season. So, on the defensive end that means the Raiders will need to step up and one large aspect that will help that is getting their pass rush going. This season, the Raiders have 15 sacks, and six of them have come from one player. If they are going to do anything this week, they will need to establish a pass rush early and often.
We are going to assume though (just for fun) that the Raiders defense will be their normal selves and not hold the Chargers back on many of their drives so that will take us to their offense. The offense starts up front with their offensive line and their line has been one of the better units in the league protecting the pass and protecting the run. This will be important this week as they are going up against Joey Bosa, someone who did not play in their first appearance. Bosa is explosive off the line and is one of the better pass rushers in the league, so if the Raiders offensive line can hold up then they already set themselves in a good position to win.
The part that will hurt the Chargers on the defensive end though is the rushing attack of Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker. These two had decent games the last time these two met including one touchdown each, but the run is how you exploit the Chargers. LA ranks 21st in the run game this season, so if Jacobs and Booker get going early it could be too much for the Chargers to handle. Plus, if they get the run going it will do one of two things for the Raiders, open up the pass and take advantage of the air or keep running the ball if the Chargers fail to adjust. The Raiders have an edge this game against the Chargers, but the Chargers are not going to go down easy, run the ball down their throat and force Herbert to make a comeback.
Final Analysis
Vegas is lucky to have one win in their past four games and this is when they need to change almost everything that they have been doing. The offense has been good enough to win the past couple of games, but the defense has not, get to Herbert early and take away the run and you remain in the playoff race. If they can’t do these things will be even tougher for them this game and being a divisional game, anything can happen. Expect this game to be close, but Vegas win in the end due to their frantic nature of trying to make the playoffs.
Score: Raiders 30, Chargers 24