In a season full of oddities, one thing that has brought some semblance of normalcy is the two number one seeds making it to the fall classic. Both of these teams got there in different ways, the Dodgers (NL) just steam rolled every opponent in their way this season through a mix of dominant pitching and powerful lineup; all of which led them to a 43-17 record which is a .717-win percentage. In the modern era (post 1900) the Dodgers had the fifth best win percentage of any team in MLB history. Obviously in a 60-game season it seems unfair to rank them among the most dominant teams in MLB history, but the win percentage will always rank up with the best in MLB history.
The Rays on the other hand had the best record in the AL due to the strength of their pitching. Overall, the Rays may not have been as good as the Dodgers were over the course of the regular season, but they still managed to finish 20 games over .500 at 40-20 (.667).
Each team suffered through a grueling seven-game series to make it to this point and if things go the way us fans hope, we will see another seven-game series to see who deserves the title this season.
So, the question now becomes not whether or not these teams belong in the World Series, but what will lead each team to a World Series trophy? Let’s start with the road team in the series—even though each game will be played inside the bubble in Arlington, Texas—the Rays.
Rays
Over the course of the regular season the Rays had the third-best ERA in the MLB at a 3.56 (2nd in the AL). When comparing the starters to the bullpen, the starters were alright ranking seventh with a 3.77 ERA, but the bullpen was the leading force of the pitching staff, ranking third at 3.37. The hitting wasn’t as good as the pitching staff, but when you have the staff, they have then the offense doesn’t need to be great. During the regular season the Rays averaged 4.81 runs per game, good for 12th in the league and with the 3.56 ERA they were bound to win more games than they lost.
While the regular season is no doubt important, it only provides a baseline for what the team can truly do. The better way to predict what a team can do is look at the postseason stats. Since teams who were eliminated in the first and second rounds did not get to play near an equal number of games, it is only fair to rank the Rays and eventually the Dodgers based on the four-teams that played in the championship series.
Let’s look at the pitching first. Out of the four remaining teams, the Rays are tied for first in ERA with the Dodgers at 3.36. Unlike the regular season, the starters and the bullpen were much more evenly ranked as the starters were second with a 3.3 ERA and the bullpen ranked third with a 3.41 ERA.
Over to the lineup, the Rays ranked fourth out of four teams in runs per game at 4.01 and they rank as the worst in every hitting category including AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, SB, BB, K, and RBI. While they do rank as the worst in all of that they do rank as the best in one category and that is HR. That leads me to the key of the series for the Rays.
We all know the pitching is what led them here and that will be what leads them to a World Series trophy, but if they want a chance against the juggernauts that are the Dodgers then they will need to be able to score on more than just the home run.
Four players have more than five RBIs this postseason for the Rays and only one of those players has more than double the RBIs than home runs and that is Hunter Renfrow who in seven games has one home run and six RBIs.
In total this postseason the Rays have 57 runs to go along with 25 home runs, that is not a good ratio. Maybe the worst part of the Rays offense this postseason has been their effort with runners in scoring position where they have hit a measly .174 with 23 RBIs. If they are going to have a chance to defeat the Dodgers who have both a great staff and lineup then they will need to start driving in runners more efficiently, whether that be via the home run or not.
So far this postseason the Rays have gotten huge help from Randy Arozarena and Manuel Margot, who is/are going to be the player(s) to step up against the Dodgers and lead them to their first World Series trophy.
Dodgers
Okay, it was only a 60-game season, but the Dodgers did something so absurd that it seems like it has to be fake. Over the 60 games, they only lost one series during the entire season (obviously postseason counts). While they did not win every series (some ties), this only shows how dominant of a team they truly are. Adding Mookie Betts to the team this season made it pretty clear that they were the favorites in the national league this season, but Betts did nothing to make the pitching as great as they were.
In the regular season the Dodgers ranked atop the MLB with a 3.02 ERA, second in starter ERA at 3.29 and second in reliever ERA at 2.74. We knew that the Dodgers had a great 1-2 in the starting game with Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler, but it is what they got out of their young studs that have made both the bullpen and starters so good. Dustin May, Julio Urias, ,Brusdar Graterol, Victor Gonzalez and Caleb Ferguson are all under 25 years old and all had an ERA under 3.3.
That was only the pitching staff, move to the lineup and the Dodgers ranked near the top of every offensive category during the season including runs per game where they averaged 5.81 runs, it is pretty clear why they only lost 17 games.
Over to the postseason and their play from the regular season transferred well. Their pitching is tied for the best of the four teams with the Rays at 3.36, the starters rank third at 3.33 and the relievers rank second at 3.4.
The offense has been similar to how they were in the regular season as well, they rank near the top of nearly every offensive category including: OPS, SLG, OBP, BB, RBI, 2B, and R at 69. In 12 games this postseason they have averaged 5.75 runs per game and to go along with their pitching it is a miracle that they went to seven games with the Braves.
So, the question becomes, what did the Braves do to take the NLCS to seven games?
Well, in the three games the Braves won this series, the Braves starters held the Dodgers to two runs in 16 innings. In the four games they lost the starters allowed 13 runs in 13.1 innings (most of which came in game three). That is the key right there, knock the opposing starters around before they have a chance to get to their bullpen.
The Rays bullpen is one of the best in the game and while the starters are also very good, if the Rays can get to the bullpen with the lead then it is more than likely they will close it out with the victory, hit them early and force them to go to their “B” relievers and you will win.
The Dodgers staff is good enough that it should limit this Rays lineup when it comes to runs scored, so if the Dodgers lineup can pounce early then it could be a short series in favor of the Rays.
Prediction:
This has the potential to be one of two series, either a six or seven game classic or a quick four to five game series. I feel that the longer this series goes on then the more it favors the Rays, but if it will be a short series it will be in favor of the Dodgers.
These were the two best teams via record in the MLB for a reason and it looks more and more likely that this could be a classic series in what was a crazy season. In the end though I think the mix of the pitching and the lineup for the Dodgers is better than just the great pitching of the Rays, but the Rays always find a way to defy odds, so don’t be surprised if this series goes six or seven games.
Dodgers Win 4 Games to 2